Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

10/22 Game 2

Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+60.3pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +42.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Watanabe Futoshi● Takamiya Mari● Matsugase Takaya● Shibukawa Namba0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Watanabe● Takamiya● Matsugase● Shibukawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTakamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Watanabe Futoshi
1st-place chance
Shibukawa Namba
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
Watanabe Futoshi
Expected pt change
Shibukawa Namba
Expected pt change
East 1Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,00026%23%26%24%+28.2-7.0-11.5-9.7
East 1, 1 honbaWatanabe Futoshi tsumo 5,20047%18%16%18%-7.7-4.6+14.6-2.2
East 2Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 5,20040%16%27%17%-2.3-11.0+19.2-5.8
East 3Matsugase Takaya ron 2,600 from Takamiya Mari36%11%40%13%-3.9+9.3-0.9-4.4
East 4Draw33%15%40%12%+9.5-2.5-1.7-5.2
South 1, 1 honbaWatanabe Futoshi ron 2,000 from Shibukawa Namba43%11%37%8%+0.1-2.1+8.6-6.6
South 2Matsugase Takaya tsumo 18,00041%9%45%5%-21.7+62.6-26.5-14.3
South 2, 1 honbaWatanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,00016%65%17%2%-13.0-25.6+42.7-4.1
South 3Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya7%26%66%2%+42.2-38.5-2.8-0.8
South 4Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,000 from Matsugase Takaya39%0%59%1%-14.6-0.1+18.5-3.7

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)