Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/22 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+60.3pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +42.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +30.0 | -9.4 | -12.0 | -8.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 5,200 | 47% | 17% | 17% | 19% | -5.3 | -5.2 | +16.5 | -6.0 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 5,200 | 43% | 14% | 26% | 16% | -2.8 | -8.1 | +14.5 | -3.7 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,600 from Mari Takamiya | 39% | 10% | 37% | 14% | -6.7 | +9.8 | +2.1 | -5.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 14% | 40% | 12% | +11.3 | -3.4 | -1.6 | -6.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 43% | 11% | 39% | 7% | -1.9 | -0.7 | +7.9 | -5.3 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000 | 39% | 10% | 45% | 6% | -22.3 | +61.2 | -24.6 | -14.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 64% | 19% | 2% | -11.6 | -25.1 | +42.0 | -5.3 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 7% | 25% | 68% | 1% | +42.4 | -38.7 | -3.5 | -0.1 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 39% | 0% | 60% | 1% | -14.8 | +0.5 | +18.2 | -3.9 |