Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/24 Game 2
Hiroshi Daigo finished 1st (+73.0pt). The game was decided in East 3: Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 12,000, which moved Hiroshi Daigo's expected points by +32.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 5,200 from Daisuke Suzuki | 27% | 24% | 23% | 26% | -4.3 | +0.4 | +18.1 | -14.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 25% | 37% | 18% | +4.6 | +2.6 | -10.4 | +3.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 27% | 28% | 20% | -5.9 | +7.4 | +1.5 | -2.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 32% | 31% | 17% | -9.3 | +24.1 | -9.9 | -4.8 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 53% | 21% | 13% | +29.2 | -16.8 | -5.9 | -6.5 |
| East 3 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 36% | 18% | 12% | -12.7 | -9.6 | +32.1 | -9.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 26% | 41% | 8% | -11.6 | -12.0 | +30.6 | -6.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 12% | 72% | 5% | -4.3 | -2.3 | +3.1 | +3.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 11% | 76% | 5% | +5.6 | -3.7 | -2.8 | +1.0 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 8% | 75% | 6% | -2.6 | -2.3 | +3.1 | +1.9 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 8% | 78% | 5% | -0.7 | -2.6 | -1.2 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 5,200 | 10% | 8% | 76% | 6% | -9.5 | +25.7 | -3.3 | -12.9 |
| South 1 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 3,200 from Daisuke Suzuki | 6% | 19% | 73% | 3% | -1.4 | -3.3 | +10.5 | -5.8 |
| South 2 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 2% | 11% | 86% | 1% | +1.5 | -3.3 | +13.2 | -11.4 |
| South 3 | Daisuke Suzuki ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | -13.7 | +3.6 | -0.6 | +10.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +1.4 | -2.4 | -0.7 | +1.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +2.9 | +6.4 | -2.1 | -7.2 |