Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/29 Game 2
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+82.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +25.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -12.8 | -4.6 | -6.0 | +23.4 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 20% | 20% | 43% | -11.5 | +31.2 | -9.7 | -10.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 44% | 14% | 33% | -1.3 | -2.5 | -2.8 | +6.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 40% | 13% | 37% | -5.7 | -8.0 | -11.6 | +25.3 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 27% | 6% | 62% | +22.5 | -3.8 | -8.2 | -10.6 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 15% | 27% | 5% | 54% | -13.5 | +1.3 | +6.3 | +5.9 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 26% | 7% | 63% | -1.0 | -2.0 | -1.2 | +4.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 20% | 6% | 70% | +3.1 | +4.9 | -9.5 | +1.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 4,800 from Arisa Date | 4% | 21% | 1% | 75% | -0.4 | -6.3 | -9.0 | +15.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 4% | 0% | 95% | -4.0 | -6.7 | -4.2 | +14.9 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 4,800 from Arisa Date | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +1.5 | -1.0 | -7.1 | +6.6 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -2.4 | -0.2 | +3.7 | -1.1 |