Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/31 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+51.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +76.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -11.7 | -3.0 | -8.0 | +22.7 |
| East 2 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 2,700 | 17% | 21% | 20% | 41% | -1.1 | -8.3 | -1.0 | +10.4 |
| East 3 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 15% | 15% | 19% | 52% | +22.1 | +1.4 | -23.9 | +0.4 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Hiroe Sugawara | 27% | 14% | 8% | 51% | +0.5 | +9.9 | -1.2 | -9.2 |
| South 1 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 28% | 22% | 8% | 42% | +34.7 | -31.2 | +2.3 | -5.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 63% | 4% | 5% | 28% | -1.1 | -3.3 | +5.9 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 64% | 4% | 6% | 26% | -10.9 | +34.7 | -12.9 | -10.9 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 53% | 19% | 5% | 22% | -0.9 | -16.1 | +21.4 | -4.5 |
| South 3 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 8,000 | 56% | 10% | 14% | 20% | -7.0 | -8.1 | -20.3 | +35.3 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 2% | 1% | 59% | -16.3 | +76.3 | -10.3 | -49.6 |