Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/31 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+51.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +76.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 24% | 26% | 23% | -13.6 | -5.1 | -4.1 | +22.8 |
| East 2 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 2,700 | 16% | 20% | 23% | 42% | -1.2 | -6.2 | -1.5 | +8.9 |
| East 3 | Daigo Hiroshi ron 8,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 14% | 15% | 20% | 51% | +22.5 | +0.3 | -24.4 | +1.6 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Sugawara Hiroe | 27% | 14% | 8% | 51% | -0.3 | +11.4 | -1.1 | -10.0 |
| South 1 | Daigo Hiroshi ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 29% | 22% | 7% | 42% | +33.6 | -30.2 | +2.5 | -5.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 62% | 5% | 5% | 28% | +0.1 | -4.9 | +4.4 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 64% | 4% | 6% | 26% | -10.2 | +34.4 | -13.3 | -10.9 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,000 | 53% | 19% | 6% | 23% | -0.1 | -15.4 | +21.1 | -5.6 |
| South 3 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 8,000 | 58% | 9% | 13% | 21% | -7.9 | -8.0 | -19.1 | +35.0 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 3% | 2% | 57% | -16.6 | +76.2 | -10.4 | -49.1 |