Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/1 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+91.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +34.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 23% | 26% | 27% | -3.4 | +6.6 | -2.2 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 21% | 29% | 25% | 26% | -0.9 | -25.5 | +31.1 | -4.8 |
| East 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Hinata Aiko | 21% | 11% | 49% | 19% | -12.3 | +3.9 | -5.7 | +14.2 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 14% | 43% | 30% | -6.8 | -9.6 | +34.0 | -17.7 |
| South 1 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 5% | 81% | 9% | +32.1 | -9.5 | -10.8 | -11.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 20% | 4% | 68% | 7% | -3.7 | +19.0 | +4.2 | -19.6 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,900 from Hinata Aiko | 13% | 8% | 75% | 4% | -8.5 | +8.5 | +1.1 | -1.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 10% | 78% | 3% | -3.3 | -14.4 | +21.9 | -4.2 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -4.9 | -6.9 | +18.3 | -6.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -23.2 | +7.6 | -1.0 | +16.6 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +2.6 | +16.9 | 0.0 | -19.5 |