Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/1 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+91.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +33.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -3.1 | +5.8 | -1.7 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 20% | 30% | 24% | 25% | -1.2 | -25.1 | +29.7 | -3.3 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Aiko Hinata | 20% | 12% | 48% | 21% | -12.0 | +0.7 | -2.9 | +14.2 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 13% | 44% | 30% | -7.3 | -7.2 | +33.6 | -19.2 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 4% | 83% | 8% | +31.3 | -9.9 | -11.1 | -10.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 19% | 4% | 69% | 8% | -2.8 | +19.3 | +5.1 | -21.5 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,900 from Aiko Hinata | 12% | 7% | 78% | 3% | -7.8 | +7.6 | -0.6 | +0.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 10% | 77% | 3% | -3.1 | -14.1 | +21.9 | -4.7 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -5.2 | -6.2 | +18.4 | -7.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -23.8 | +6.2 | -0.6 | +18.2 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +3.0 | +17.2 | -0.4 | -19.8 |