Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

11/7 Game 1

Shiratori Sho finished 1st (+62.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Shiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Sugawara Hiroe, which moved Shiratori Sho's expected points by +41.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Shiratori Sho● Watanabe Futoshi● Okada Sayaka● Sugawara Hiroe0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Shiratori● Watanabe● Okada● Sugawara
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultWatanabe Futoshi
1st-place chance
Okada Sayaka
1st-place chance
Shiratori Sho
1st-place chance
Sugawara Hiroe
1st-place chance
Watanabe Futoshi
Expected pt change
Okada Sayaka
Expected pt change
Shiratori Sho
Expected pt change
Sugawara Hiroe
Expected pt change
East 1Sugawara Hiroe ron 1,000 from Okada Sayaka26%25%23%26%-2.7-3.8+2.4+4.0
East 2Draw23%23%25%28%-2.3+3.6+0.7-2.0
East 2, 1 honbaDraw23%25%26%27%-1.0-3.0+0.7+3.2
East 3, 2 honbaShiratori Sho tsumo 1,50022%22%26%30%-5.3-3.4+12.5-3.8
East 3, 3 honbaWatanabe Futoshi ron 1,600 from Okada Sayaka18%20%36%27%+14.3-6.8-3.1-4.4
East 4Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 12,00028%17%32%23%-13.0-10.0-13.7+36.7
East 4, 1 honbaShiratori Sho ron 2,000 from Sugawara Hiroe16%10%19%55%-1.7-0.1+8.5-6.7
South 1Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,900 from Okada Sayaka16%11%26%48%+8.9-7.7-0.9-0.3
South 1, 1 honbaWatanabe Futoshi ron 7,700 from Shiratori Sho20%8%25%48%+30.7-2.0-25.9-2.9
South 1, 2 honbaWatanabe Futoshi tsumo 3,00046%6%9%40%+9.2-2.6-1.2-5.4
South 1, 3 honbaDraw57%5%8%30%-0.7+1.0-0.6+0.2
South 1, 4 honbaOkada Sayaka ron 2,000 from Shiratori Sho56%5%8%32%-1.8+8.2-9.3+2.9
South 2Shiratori Sho ron 5,200 from Okada Sayaka55%6%5%34%+5.9-17.7+12.4-0.5
South 3Draw65%0%6%29%-4.3+1.3+3.1-0.2
South 3, 1 honbaShiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Sugawara Hiroe58%1%9%32%-0.2-0.8+41.5-40.4
South 3, 2 honbaShiratori Sho tsumo 12,00059%1%33%8%-24.8-4.2+37.6-8.6
South 3, 3 honbaSugawara Hiroe tsumo 8,00010%0%87%3%-4.6-7.3-4.2+16.1
South 4Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Sugawara Hiroe5%0%89%6%+9.40.0+5.2-14.6

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)