Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/7 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+62.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Hiroe Sugawara, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +40.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 1,000 from Sayaka Okada | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -0.5 | -3.5 | +0.5 | +3.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 23% | 25% | 29% | -5.5 | +7.1 | -0.3 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 30% | 24% | 27% | +2.1 | -6.4 | +2.0 | +2.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 1,500 | 22% | 22% | 26% | 29% | -3.3 | -3.7 | +10.9 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,600 from Sayaka Okada | 19% | 20% | 34% | 27% | +12.2 | -6.6 | -3.2 | -2.5 |
| East 4 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 17% | 32% | 24% | -13.5 | -11.0 | -10.5 | +35.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 16% | 10% | 21% | 53% | +0.6 | +0.5 | +5.4 | -6.6 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,900 from Sayaka Okada | 17% | 11% | 24% | 48% | +9.0 | -10.3 | +0.3 | +1.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 7,700 from Sho Shiratori | 22% | 7% | 23% | 48% | +29.2 | -0.8 | -24.5 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 3,000 | 47% | 6% | 10% | 38% | +9.7 | -1.2 | -4.1 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 5% | 7% | 31% | -2.4 | +0.6 | +1.3 | +0.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 55% | 5% | 8% | 32% | +0.1 | +8.3 | -9.6 | +1.1 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Sayaka Okada | 56% | 6% | 5% | 33% | +4.5 | -18.4 | +13.5 | +0.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 64% | 1% | 7% | 29% | -3.2 | +2.3 | +2.4 | -1.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 60% | 1% | 9% | 30% | -0.2 | -1.0 | +40.5 | -39.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 60% | 1% | 33% | 7% | -25.9 | -4.8 | +38.8 | -8.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 0% | 89% | 2% | -5.0 | -7.1 | -6.1 | +18.2 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 5% | 0% | 87% | 8% | +10.3 | +0.2 | +6.2 | -16.7 |