Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/8 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Hiroshi Daigo, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +48.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,300 from Saki Kurosawa | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +0.2 | +0.4 | +2.6 | -3.3 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 25% | 28% | 23% | -7.0 | +16.7 | -5.4 | -4.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 36% | 23% | 22% | +23.1 | -13.4 | -2.9 | -6.8 |
| East 3 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 36% | 25% | 22% | 17% | +14.8 | +0.5 | -5.4 | -10.0 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 49% | 24% | 15% | 12% | -1.5 | -1.9 | +15.8 | -12.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 22% | 24% | 6% | -4.1 | -4.6 | +6.8 | +1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 45% | 19% | 29% | 7% | -18.9 | +45.6 | -17.6 | -9.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 65% | 13% | 3% | +6.0 | -2.6 | +1.0 | -4.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 21% | 64% | 14% | 2% | +1.7 | +6.0 | -41.4 | +33.7 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 7,800 | 16% | 76% | 0% | 8% | -9.9 | -6.7 | -4.0 | +20.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 13% | 68% | 0% | 19% | -32.2 | -20.0 | +3.4 | +48.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 1,600 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 15% | 0% | 85% | +6.0 | -4.8 | -5.9 | +4.7 |