Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/14 Game 1
Maki Asami finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Maki Asami tsumo 18,000, which moved Maki Asami's expected points by +43.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -3.7 | +5.6 | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 27% | 25% | 25% | -7.0 | -12.6 | -8.8 | +28.3 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 16% | 17% | 19% | 48% | +17.8 | -2.5 | -16.7 | +1.5 |
| East 4 | Maki Asami tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 15% | 9% | 49% | -7.3 | +35.7 | -8.2 | -20.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 43% | 7% | 29% | -6.8 | +0.4 | -3.5 | +9.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 42% | 6% | 37% | -9.0 | +3.0 | +4.2 | +1.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Maki Asami tsumo 18,000 | 10% | 46% | 6% | 38% | -12.0 | +43.1 | -10.3 | -20.7 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Maki Asami | 1% | 93% | 1% | 5% | +5.8 | -4.7 | -3.2 | +2.1 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 0% | 92% | 1% | 6% | -0.4 | +1.2 | +16.3 | -17.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 95% | 2% | 3% | -18.1 | -12.1 | +50.2 | -20.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,500 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 0% | 80% | 18% | 2% | +2.5 | -2.9 | +6.8 | -6.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 73% | 25% | 2% | +1.3 | +1.4 | +1.9 | -4.5 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 74% | 25% | 1% | +9.3 | +6.2 | -9.9 | -5.6 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 90% | 9% | 1% | +5.6 | +2.9 | -2.7 | -5.8 |