Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/14 Game 1
Asami Maki finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Asami Maki tsumo 18,000, which moved Asami Maki's expected points by +42.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Asami Maki 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Asami Maki Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -4.2 | +7.2 | -1.3 | -1.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 29% | 25% | 26% | -4.1 | -15.0 | -8.8 | +28.0 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Aki ron 5,200 from Date Arisa | 18% | 17% | 18% | 47% | +17.6 | -2.2 | -17.4 | +2.0 |
| East 4 | Asami Maki tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 14% | 9% | 49% | -10.4 | +37.1 | -7.1 | -19.6 |
| South 1 | Draw | 20% | 44% | 7% | 29% | -4.2 | -0.1 | -3.9 | +8.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 15% | 43% | 6% | 36% | -9.3 | +2.6 | +3.6 | +3.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Asami Maki tsumo 18,000 | 10% | 45% | 7% | 39% | -11.8 | +42.9 | -10.8 | -20.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 2,000 from Asami Maki | 0% | 92% | 1% | 6% | +5.8 | -3.7 | -2.8 | +0.7 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa ron 5,800 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 0% | 93% | 1% | 5% | -0.7 | +0.1 | +17.1 | -16.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 94% | 2% | 3% | -17.3 | -13.1 | +49.9 | -19.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 1,500 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 0% | 78% | 19% | 3% | +2.4 | -1.0 | +6.5 | -7.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 74% | 25% | 1% | +1.8 | +2.0 | +1.0 | -4.8 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 75% | 24% | 1% | +9.1 | +4.7 | -8.8 | -5.0 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 89% | 10% | 0% | +4.9 | +3.5 | -3.3 | -5.2 |