Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/15 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+93.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 16,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +40.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 16,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -21.5 | +40.9 | -9.5 | -9.9 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 7,800 | 10% | 59% | 15% | 16% | -6.2 | +16.2 | -5.4 | -4.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 5% | 74% | 10% | 11% | +3.4 | +18.7 | -23.1 | +0.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 89% | 2% | 6% | +11.8 | -3.5 | -4.7 | -3.5 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 5% | 88% | 2% | 6% | -0.1 | +0.7 | -6.1 | +5.6 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Shingo Hori | 3% | 90% | 1% | 6% | +0.8 | +3.0 | +5.2 | -9.0 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 3% | 94% | 1% | 3% | +0.2 | +1.1 | +25.9 | -27.2 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Takaki Asai | 1% | 97% | 2% | 1% | -23.5 | +13.3 | +5.8 | +4.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 1,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | -0.9 | -2.7 | +2.8 | +0.7 |
| South 3 | Shingo Hori ron 2,600 from Takaki Asai | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | -10.6 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +8.2 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -8.8 | +4.6 | +4.7 | -0.5 |