Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/15 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+93.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 16,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +43.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 16,000 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -21.6 | +43.0 | -10.9 | -10.5 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 7,800 | 9% | 60% | 15% | 17% | -2.9 | +14.4 | -6.0 | -5.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 7% | 73% | 9% | 10% | +1.9 | +19.8 | -23.0 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Asai Takaki tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 88% | 3% | 6% | +12.4 | -3.7 | -5.5 | -3.2 |
| East 3 | Hori Shingo ron 2,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 5% | 88% | 2% | 5% | -0.1 | +0.7 | -4.8 | +4.3 |
| East 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,600 from Hori Shingo | 4% | 90% | 1% | 6% | +1.6 | +2.1 | +3.8 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo | 3% | 93% | 1% | 2% | -2.0 | +2.2 | +27.4 | -27.6 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Asai Takaki | 0% | 97% | 2% | 1% | -22.5 | +12.6 | +5.8 | +4.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 1,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | -1.6 | -2.3 | +1.2 | +2.6 |
| South 3 | Hori Shingo ron 2,600 from Asai Takaki | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | -10.1 | +0.6 | +3.1 | +6.4 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -8.9 | +4.5 | +4.2 | +0.2 |