Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/19 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+63.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +24.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +7.7 | -2.8 | -4.0 | -1.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 23% | 23% | 23% | +5.8 | -4.5 | +1.7 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,300 from Takaharu Ooi | 34% | 20% | 24% | 22% | -0.7 | -4.5 | +4.8 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 5,200 | 33% | 19% | 26% | 22% | -3.7 | -12.2 | +18.9 | -3.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 10% | 42% | 19% | -2.3 | +2.3 | +1.9 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 12% | 42% | 19% | +1.3 | -1.9 | +3.6 | -3.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 11% | 45% | 16% | +19.9 | -3.9 | -9.8 | -6.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 46% | 8% | 33% | 12% | +5.7 | +2.2 | +2.0 | -9.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 51% | 9% | 33% | 7% | -11.5 | -8.9 | -4.4 | +24.9 |
| South 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 5,200 | 41% | 7% | 33% | 19% | +21.8 | -11.4 | -5.5 | -5.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 70% | 1% | 18% | 11% | -4.4 | -0.2 | +6.6 | -1.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,100 | 63% | 1% | 25% | 11% | -4.4 | -2.3 | +9.7 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 55% | 0% | 36% | 9% | +24.5 | -3.9 | -16.5 | -4.1 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 91% | 0% | 4% | 4% | -1.0 | -4.0 | -0.3 | +5.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 90% | 0% | 5% | 6% | -2.4 | +1.4 | -2.8 | +3.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 88% | 0% | 4% | 8% | -1.4 | -0.7 | -1.8 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,300 from Hisato Sasaki | 85% | 0% | 5% | 10% | +9.1 | -0.3 | +3.8 | -12.6 |