Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

11/19 Game 2

Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+63.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Shibukawa Namba tsumo 4,000, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +24.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance	Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance	Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance	Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance	Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change	Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change	Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change	Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change
East 1	Draw	25%	25%	25%	26%	+7.9	-0.9	-3.3	-3.6
East 1, 1 honba	Draw	30%	24%	23%	23%	+6.5	-3.7	-0.9	-1.9
East 1, 2 honba	Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,300 from Ooi Takaharu	35%	22%	22%	21%	-3.0	-5.4	+7.6	+0.8
East 2	Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 5,200	32%	18%	28%	22%	-2.1	-11.7	+17.2	-3.4
East 3	Draw	29%	12%	40%	19%	-1.0	+0.5	+3.3	-2.8
East 3, 1 honba	Draw	28%	12%	43%	17%	+1.4	-2.1	+1.2	-0.5
East 3, 2 honba	Shibukawa Namba tsumo 4,000	29%	11%	43%	17%	+20.1	-4.2	-8.9	-7.0
East 4	Draw	48%	8%	32%	13%	+4.3	+4.0	+2.6	-10.9
South 1, 1 honba	Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000	52%	8%	34%	6%	-12.1	-10.5	-4.7	+27.3
South 2	Shibukawa Namba tsumo 5,200	42%	7%	31%	21%	+21.4	-10.8	-3.8	-6.8
South 3	Draw	69%	1%	20%	11%	-3.2	-0.6	+7.1	-3.3
South 3, 1 honba	Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,100	63%	0%	26%	10%	-4.6	-2.6	+8.0	-0.8
South 3, 2 honba	Shibukawa Namba tsumo 4,000	56%	0%	35%	10%	+24.2	-3.2	-16.7	-4.3
South 4	Sasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Ooi Takaharu	91%	0%	4%	5%	-1.2	-3.6	+0.8	+4.1
South 4, 1 honba	Draw	89%	0%	5%	6%	-1.8	+1.6	-3.5	+3.7
South 4, 2 honba	Draw	88%	0%	4%	8%	-2.3	-1.3	-1.3	+4.8
South 4, 3 honba	Shibukawa Namba ron 1,300 from Sasaki Hisato	84%	0%	5%	11%	+9.6	+0.2	+3.4	-13.1

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)