Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

11/21 Game 1

Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+61.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +31.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Takamiya Mari● Nakada Kana● Matsugase Takaya● Kurosawa Saki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Takamiya● Nakada● Matsugase● Kurosawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNakada Kana
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Kurosawa Saki
1st-place chance
Nakada Kana
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
Kurosawa Saki
Expected pt change
East 1Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,00027%24%24%25%-16.0+31.6-8.9-6.7
East 2Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki14%49%18%19%-1.0-1.2+22.8-20.6
East 3Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Nakada Kana13%47%31%9%-25.4-6.7+32.0+0.1
East 3, 1 honbaKurosawa Saki tsumo 4,0003%32%59%6%-4.2-0.4-3.6+8.2
East 4Draw3%31%57%8%+2.8-2.6-5.6+5.4
East 4, 1 honbaNakada Kana tsumo 8,0004%32%51%13%+16.4-3.2+2.0-15.2
South 1Takamiya Mari ron 1,300 from Matsugase Takaya7%29%58%6%-3.8+4.9-1.2+0.1
South 2Draw3%35%56%6%-1.4+7.1-3.7-2.1
South 2, 1 honbaKurosawa Saki ron 3,900 from Nakada Kana3%42%50%5%-12.2-1.1+1.7+11.7
South 3Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,0001%40%52%7%-5.4+30.3-23.9-1.0
South 4Nakada Kana tsumo 5,2000%89%7%4%+3.1+3.7-1.2-5.6

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)