Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/21 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+61.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +30.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -16.9 | +30.9 | -7.4 | -6.6 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 14% | 49% | 18% | 19% | -0.1 | +0.9 | +20.4 | -21.2 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Kana Nakada | 11% | 48% | 30% | 10% | -25.2 | -8.9 | +32.3 | +1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 4,000 | 3% | 30% | 59% | 8% | -2.8 | -0.1 | -3.0 | +6.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 31% | 57% | 9% | +3.8 | -4.7 | -2.3 | +3.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kana Nakada tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 29% | 56% | 11% | +15.3 | -1.1 | -1.7 | -12.6 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,300 from Takaya Matsugase | 7% | 28% | 57% | 7% | -4.8 | +4.8 | +0.3 | -0.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 33% | 58% | 6% | -1.2 | +6.5 | -3.3 | -2.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Kana Nakada | 3% | 39% | 52% | 5% | -12.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +12.5 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 40% | 52% | 7% | -4.7 | +30.8 | -23.3 | -2.7 |
| South 4 | Kana Nakada tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 90% | 6% | 4% | +2.6 | +3.5 | -1.0 | -5.1 |