Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/22 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+58.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +51.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -2.8 | +1.5 | +21.9 | -20.6 |
| East 2 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 20% | 25% | 42% | 13% | +3.0 | -24.1 | -0.9 | +22.1 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 11% | 41% | 25% | -5.3 | +20.3 | -9.9 | -5.1 |
| East 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 2,100 | 22% | 22% | 33% | 23% | -3.0 | -1.6 | -3.1 | +7.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 19% | 21% | 30% | 30% | +24.6 | -22.6 | +1.5 | -3.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 9% | 30% | 24% | +7.7 | +0.7 | -5.1 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 1,500 | 44% | 10% | 25% | 22% | +6.9 | -2.6 | -0.9 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 51% | 8% | 23% | 18% | -8.9 | -1.0 | +7.9 | +2.0 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 42% | 8% | 30% | 20% | +13.2 | -11.0 | +0.2 | -2.4 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 59% | 2% | 25% | 15% | -17.3 | +1.0 | +16.8 | -0.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000 | 34% | 2% | 48% | 16% | -11.0 | -7.4 | -19.0 | +37.4 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 0% | 24% | 53% | +51.5 | -3.8 | -24.2 | -23.5 |