Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/25 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+54.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +63.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -2.9 | +3.0 | -3.7 | +3.6 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Arisa Date | 23% | 26% | 22% | 28% | -5.1 | -0.3 | +4.9 | +0.6 |
| East 3 | Takaki Asai ron 1,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 20% | 27% | 26% | 28% | +1.7 | +1.5 | -3.3 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Takaki Asai ron 18,000 from Aki Nikaido | 22% | 29% | 22% | 28% | -2.1 | -45.5 | -2.4 | +50.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 3% | 12% | 74% | -8.0 | +18.7 | -5.4 | -5.3 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 9% | 8% | 11% | 71% | -8.1 | -4.8 | +12.3 | +0.7 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 4% | 7% | 15% | 74% | +25.8 | -25.0 | -2.7 | +1.9 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai | 11% | 0% | 13% | 77% | +39.7 | -1.1 | -7.6 | -30.9 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 70% | 0% | 6% | 24% | -28.8 | -2.8 | +63.8 | -32.2 |