Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
11/29 Game 2
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+85.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 3 honba: Sho Shiratori ron 9,600 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +25.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Go Kobayashi | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -5.7 | +9.5 | -0.3 | -3.6 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 32% | 23% | 24% | -4.9 | -12.1 | +23.6 | -6.6 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 18% | 21% | 43% | 18% | -0.2 | -3.2 | +31.8 | -28.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 12% | 11% | 72% | 5% | -1.5 | +29.6 | -6.6 | -21.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 30% | 60% | 1% | -2.1 | -2.1 | -0.6 | +4.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 29% | 61% | 2% | +17.9 | -5.8 | -3.2 | -8.9 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 6,000 | 17% | 24% | 58% | 1% | +15.5 | -6.3 | -6.6 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 5,800 from Shingo Hori | 29% | 21% | 49% | 1% | +21.6 | -1.3 | -20.0 | -0.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,500 from Go Kobayashi | 56% | 18% | 25% | 1% | +2.6 | +0.3 | -1.2 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 9,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 57% | 18% | 24% | 0% | +25.5 | -23.9 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 86% | 3% | 11% | 0% | +1.0 | +0.1 | +1.6 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Go Kobayashi | 86% | 3% | 12% | 0% | -0.1 | +3.7 | -0.6 | -3.0 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 87% | 3% | 10% | 0% | -9.9 | +26.9 | -11.7 | -5.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,600 from Go Kobayashi | 76% | 14% | 10% | 0% | +11.7 | -4.5 | -3.7 | -3.5 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 92% | 3% | 5% | 0% | +4.3 | +0.6 | -5.1 | +0.1 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | +8.5 | +2.5 | -5.6 | -5.5 |