Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/2 Game 1
Hiroe Sugawara finished 1st (+85.2pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Hiroe Sugawara ron 18,000 from Aiko Hinata, which moved Hiroe Sugawara's expected points by +34.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -18.3 | +32.9 | -6.3 | -8.2 |
| East 2 | Takaki Asai ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 12% | 51% | 18% | 19% | -20.2 | -2.7 | +20.9 | +1.9 |
| East 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 5% | 45% | 31% | 19% | +12.5 | +2.2 | +0.3 | -14.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 50% | 29% | 12% | -2.1 | -0.6 | -3.1 | +5.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 8% | 49% | 28% | 15% | +25.2 | +0.7 | +1.4 | -27.3 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 18% | 50% | 28% | 4% | +8.7 | -0.9 | -1.7 | -6.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 48% | 26% | 3% | -4.4 | +10.7 | -3.1 | -3.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 18,000 from Aiko Hinata | 17% | 60% | 21% | 3% | -42.2 | +34.6 | +1.3 | +6.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 93% | 6% | 1% | -2.0 | -0.4 | -1.0 | +3.4 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 95% | 4% | 1% | +30.4 | -1.7 | -17.2 | -11.5 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,900 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | -2.0 | -1.2 | -2.4 | +5.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -9.5 | +13.0 | +9.1 | -12.6 |