Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/2 Game 1
Sugawara Hiroe finished 1st (+85.2pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Sugawara Hiroe ron 18,000 from Hinata Aiko, which moved Sugawara Hiroe's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -14.3 | +30.8 | -9.0 | -7.5 |
| East 2 | Asai Takaki ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 14% | 51% | 17% | 18% | -24.2 | -1.2 | +25.6 | -0.2 |
| East 3 | Hinata Aiko ron 5,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 5% | 47% | 32% | 17% | +13.0 | +3.2 | -3.2 | -13.0 |
| East 4 | Draw | 9% | 51% | 29% | 12% | -4.0 | -3.4 | +0.2 | +7.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 6% | 48% | 29% | 16% | +26.6 | +2.0 | +0.8 | -29.3 |
| South 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 2,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 18% | 50% | 29% | 3% | +9.5 | -3.4 | 0.0 | -6.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 24% | 44% | 30% | 3% | -5.2 | +12.8 | -5.9 | -1.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 18,000 from Hinata Aiko | 15% | 61% | 22% | 2% | -42.3 | +35.2 | +1.1 | +6.0 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 95% | 5% | 0% | -1.2 | -1.6 | -0.9 | +3.6 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 95% | 4% | 1% | +29.5 | -1.3 | -17.7 | -10.5 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 3,900 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.1 | +3.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | -9.2 | +13.0 | +7.8 | -11.6 |