Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/3 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in East 2: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 16,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +43.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +4.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 7,700 from Saki Kurosawa | 29% | 24% | 23% | 24% | +21.9 | -2.0 | -18.4 | -1.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 5,200 | 45% | 20% | 13% | 22% | -8.1 | -3.7 | -4.3 | +16.1 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 16,000 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 33% | -11.9 | -21.4 | +43.5 | -10.2 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 28% | 9% | 38% | 25% | +6.9 | -0.8 | -7.9 | +1.7 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 34% | 9% | 29% | 28% | +30.0 | -6.7 | -8.8 | -14.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 65% | 5% | 17% | 13% | -1.3 | -0.5 | -2.9 | +4.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 66% | 5% | 15% | 14% | -2.6 | -0.7 | +35.2 | -31.8 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 55% | 0% | 42% | 3% | -9.5 | +6.4 | +7.0 | -3.9 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 7,700 from Ken Sonoda | 38% | 0% | 59% | 3% | -22.5 | -10.6 | +9.1 | +23.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 10% | 0% | 83% | 7% | -0.7 | -4.5 | +10.4 | -5.3 |