Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/6 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+77.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +34.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date ron 18,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +42.1 | -2.7 | -40.2 | +0.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 58% | 17% | 5% | 20% | -4.4 | -4.4 | +13.0 | -4.1 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 56% | 17% | 10% | 18% | -0.5 | -5.0 | -4.8 | +10.3 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 56% | 13% | 8% | 24% | -15.6 | -15.1 | +45.9 | -15.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kana Nakada | 41% | 9% | 32% | 19% | -1.1 | -18.2 | -4.6 | +23.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 4% | 26% | 32% | +5.8 | -2.8 | -4.3 | +1.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Kana Nakada | 43% | 3% | 22% | 33% | -5.1 | -11.5 | +0.5 | +16.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 1% | 20% | 45% | -2.0 | -1.4 | +4.7 | -1.3 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Kana Nakada | 32% | 1% | 22% | 45% | +16.1 | -6.7 | -4.4 | -4.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 47% | 1% | 17% | 35% | +13.1 | -0.1 | -11.1 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Kana Nakada ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 62% | 0% | 10% | 29% | +2.2 | +5.5 | -6.8 | -1.0 |
| South 2 | Kana Nakada ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 68% | 1% | 5% | 25% | +0.2 | +2.4 | +0.4 | -2.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 70% | 1% | 6% | 24% | -18.1 | -9.0 | -7.1 | +34.2 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Kana Nakada | 31% | 0% | 3% | 67% | +1.1 | -3.4 | +5.3 | -3.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,000 | 33% | 0% | 4% | 63% | -6.9 | -0.1 | -5.6 | +12.5 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 7,700 from Arisa Date | 15% | 0% | 0% | 85% | -14.1 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +13.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Arisa Date | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -3.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +5.0 | -0.2 | -2.6 | -2.3 |