Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/6 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+77.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +36.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Nakada Kana 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Nakada Kana Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa ron 18,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +42.1 | +1.2 | -40.6 | -2.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 56% | 20% | 5% | 18% | -5.4 | -5.9 | +11.1 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 4,000 | 55% | 18% | 8% | 19% | -0.6 | -6.6 | -3.6 | +10.9 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 54% | 13% | 7% | 26% | -15.2 | -15.0 | +45.2 | -14.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Nakada Kana | 40% | 9% | 31% | 20% | -0.4 | -20.0 | -0.7 | +21.1 |
| East 4 | Draw | 37% | 3% | 28% | 32% | +5.0 | +0.1 | -7.4 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 5,800 from Nakada Kana | 41% | 4% | 22% | 33% | -3.4 | -11.9 | -1.0 | +16.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 34% | 2% | 18% | 47% | -2.3 | -0.5 | +5.1 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Date Arisa ron 5,800 from Nakada Kana | 33% | 1% | 22% | 44% | +16.6 | -8.7 | -3.3 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 48% | 0% | 17% | 35% | +12.7 | -0.5 | -9.8 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Nakada Kana ron 2,600 from Setokuma Naoki | 62% | 0% | 10% | 28% | +0.4 | +6.7 | -7.7 | +0.6 |
| South 2 | Nakada Kana ron 2,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 66% | 1% | 6% | 27% | +2.6 | +1.5 | +0.9 | -4.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 71% | 1% | 7% | 21% | -19.6 | -8.4 | -8.5 | +36.5 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Nakada Kana | 29% | 0% | 2% | 69% | +1.8 | -3.3 | +5.6 | -4.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 2,000 | 33% | 0% | 4% | 63% | -6.3 | -0.1 | -5.1 | +11.5 |
| South 4 | Mizuhara Akina ron 7,700 from Date Arisa | 16% | 0% | 0% | 84% | -14.5 | -0.4 | +0.7 | +14.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,000 from Date Arisa | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -3.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +2.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +4.9 | 0.0 | -2.4 | -2.5 |