Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/12 Game 1
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+61.7pt). The game was decided in South 2: Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +34.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 1,100 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -5.7 | -3.5 | +8.2 | +0.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 21% | 31% | 27% | +2.4 | +4.5 | -3.5 | -3.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 26% | 28% | 25% | +10.0 | -4.7 | -3.9 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 1,100 | 30% | 21% | 26% | 23% | -2.9 | +9.3 | -2.3 | -4.1 |
| East 4 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 28% | 23% | 21% | -4.1 | -7.0 | -6.3 | +17.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 6,400 from Tomohiro Honda | 25% | 23% | 19% | 33% | +20.1 | -18.3 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| South 1 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 40% | 12% | 17% | 30% | -0.2 | +26.0 | -25.6 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 40% | 25% | 6% | 28% | +34.5 | -8.3 | -21.2 | -5.0 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda ron 6,400 from Sayaka Okada | 81% | 6% | 1% | 12% | +0.3 | +16.3 | -9.3 | -7.3 |
| South 4 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 3,000 | 81% | 10% | 0% | 9% | -1.9 | -3.5 | -1.0 | +6.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 1,500 | 79% | 8% | 0% | 12% | +8.7 | +4.6 | -0.2 | -13.1 |