Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/12 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+53.9pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +38.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kana Nakada tsumo 2,000 | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | -6.0 | -1.5 | +5.3 | +2.1 |
| East 2 | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 23% | 30% | 26% | -5.0 | -17.4 | +34.5 | -12.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 10% | 60% | 15% | -4.0 | -2.1 | +5.4 | +0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 9% | 66% | 15% | -10.8 | +38.4 | -16.4 | -11.2 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 8% | 33% | 48% | 11% | -10.4 | +12.6 | -0.3 | -2.0 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 45% | 44% | 8% | +29.0 | -9.8 | -8.6 | -10.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 37% | 39% | 7% | +5.8 | -4.2 | -2.4 | +0.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 35% | 37% | 7% | -5.0 | -1.2 | +8.2 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 31% | 46% | 7% | -3.1 | +7.5 | -3.9 | -0.5 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,300 from Kana Nakada | 15% | 38% | 40% | 6% | +21.1 | -2.5 | -13.3 | -5.3 |
| South 3 | Kana Nakada ron 5,800 from Taro Suzuki | 30% | 37% | 27% | 5% | -7.6 | -5.8 | +23.5 | -10.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kana Nakada ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 20% | 27% | 51% | 3% | -6.9 | -1.3 | +8.3 | -0.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 5,200 | 12% | 22% | 63% | 2% | -9.6 | +26.7 | -14.5 | -2.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 59% | 36% | 1% | -0.2 | -1.0 | -1.2 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 57% | 36% | 2% | +25.6 | +16.2 | -33.6 | -8.2 |