Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/16 Game 1
Genta Takeuchi finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in South 2: Genta Takeuchi tsumo 12,000, which moved Genta Takeuchi's expected points by +35.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | +32.4 | -10.1 | -12.4 | -9.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 50% | 16% | 17% | 18% | -1.1 | +0.5 | -9.9 | +10.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 51% | 17% | 11% | 22% | -0.7 | +3.5 | -0.6 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 2,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 50% | 17% | 11% | 22% | -0.8 | +10.7 | -7.5 | -2.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 48% | 24% | 9% | 20% | -6.5 | -13.1 | -5.0 | +24.6 |
| East 3 | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 8,000 | 41% | 14% | 7% | 38% | -6.2 | +25.7 | -13.1 | -6.4 |
| East 4 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 2,000 | 33% | 32% | 3% | 32% | +10.7 | -2.7 | -3.3 | -4.6 |
| South 1 | Genta Takeuchi ron 1,300 from Takaya Matsugase | 43% | 28% | 2% | 27% | -4.4 | +11.2 | -2.4 | -4.4 |
| South 2 | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 38% | 2% | 22% | -17.6 | +35.1 | -6.0 | -11.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 10% | 81% | 1% | 9% | -0.8 | -1.6 | +5.3 | -3.0 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 24,000 | 7% | 84% | 1% | 7% | -19.3 | -12.2 | +54.6 | -23.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 4,800 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 6% | 75% | 14% | 6% | -15.0 | -3.5 | +16.3 | +2.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 3% | 68% | 24% | 5% | +32.7 | +8.7 | -35.8 | -5.7 |
| South 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 7% | 87% | 1% | 5% | +0.5 | +6.4 | +4.0 | -10.9 |