Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/19 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+59.8pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +56.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -1.8 | +5.0 | -0.8 | -2.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 1,300 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 24% | 29% | 24% | 24% | -1.2 | -7.7 | +7.5 | +1.4 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 22% | 30% | 25% | +27.2 | -5.9 | -14.9 | -6.3 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 46% | 17% | 17% | 21% | -13.1 | -12.1 | -10.2 | +35.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 12% | 11% | 48% | -2.0 | +8.5 | -3.2 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 1,300 from Sayaka Okada | 28% | 16% | 11% | 46% | +2.1 | -5.6 | +6.2 | -2.7 |
| South 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 3,000 | 30% | 13% | 13% | 44% | -6.0 | +10.2 | -2.9 | -1.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 27% | 19% | 13% | 42% | +7.9 | -2.7 | -6.8 | +1.6 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 31% | 13% | 11% | 45% | +33.2 | -3.0 | -23.4 | -6.8 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 77% | 4% | 0% | 19% | -1.0 | -1.0 | -2.2 | +4.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 3,000 | 74% | 3% | 0% | 23% | -14.3 | -2.1 | -2.5 | +18.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 7,700 from Arisa Date | 42% | 2% | 0% | 56% | -27.4 | +2.2 | 0.0 | +25.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 97% | +56.5 | -6.8 | -3.2 | -46.5 |