Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/19 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+59.8pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +56.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -1.0 | +5.9 | -2.2 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Daigo Hiroshi ron 1,300 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 23% | 28% | 25% | 24% | -2.0 | -8.0 | +5.5 | +4.5 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 23% | 28% | 27% | +30.7 | -8.5 | -13.4 | -8.8 |
| East 4 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 48% | 15% | 17% | 20% | -17.6 | -8.7 | -10.0 | +36.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 27% | 11% | 11% | 50% | +0.1 | +6.0 | -2.6 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Daigo Hiroshi ron 1,300 from Okada Sayaka | 29% | 15% | 10% | 46% | -1.6 | -2.5 | +7.4 | -3.3 |
| South 2 | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 3,000 | 27% | 14% | 15% | 43% | -3.3 | +9.3 | -3.9 | -2.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 1,000 from Daigo Hiroshi | 25% | 20% | 14% | 42% | +9.0 | -3.3 | -8.0 | +2.3 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Daigo Hiroshi | 33% | 14% | 10% | 44% | +32.7 | -3.9 | -22.6 | -6.3 |
| South 4 | Win | 77% | 3% | 0% | 20% | -1.0 | -0.9 | -2.2 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 3,000 | 75% | 3% | 0% | 23% | -12.9 | -1.8 | -2.2 | +17.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 7,700 from Date Arisa | 45% | 2% | 0% | 53% | -28.9 | +2.0 | +0.2 | +26.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 97% | +56.4 | -6.4 | -4.0 | -46.1 |