Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/23 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+58.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Sugawara Hiroe, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +34.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +8.4 | -6.5 | -4.1 | +2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 1,600 from Date Arisa | 29% | 22% | 22% | 27% | -4.4 | -2.2 | +3.3 | +3.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 25% | 21% | 26% | 29% | -1.6 | +4.9 | -1.2 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 2,600 from Date Arisa | 25% | 23% | 24% | 28% | +0.6 | -8.2 | +10.1 | -2.5 |
| East 3 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 1,500 | 25% | 17% | 32% | 26% | -1.7 | -0.6 | -3.6 | +5.9 |
| East 4 | Draw | 24% | 17% | 27% | 32% | +4.2 | +0.9 | +0.1 | -5.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Sugawara Hiroe | 27% | 18% | 28% | 27% | -2.7 | +29.4 | -7.2 | -19.6 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Sugawara Hiroe | 24% | 39% | 22% | 14% | -1.7 | +11.4 | +1.4 | -11.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 52% | 21% | 9% | +46.6 | -27.0 | -10.8 | -8.7 |
| South 3 | Draw | 74% | 12% | 10% | 4% | -4.6 | -1.4 | +4.4 | +1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Sugawara Hiroe | 67% | 14% | 13% | 5% | -7.7 | +34.6 | -11.2 | -15.7 |
| South 4 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 4,800 from Okada Sayaka | 45% | 52% | 2% | 2% | -15.5 | +8.2 | +1.4 | +5.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Sugawara Hiroe | 23% | 72% | 3% | 2% | -6.4 | +14.8 | -1.0 | -7.4 |