Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/23 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+58.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Hiroe Sugawara, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +36.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | +3.4 | -2.7 | -4.8 | +4.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 1,600 from Arisa Date | 28% | 22% | 23% | 28% | -2.1 | -4.5 | +5.0 | +1.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 19% | 25% | 30% | -1.1 | +9.2 | -3.0 | -5.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +1.6 | -13.3 | +11.2 | +0.6 |
| East 3 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 1,500 | 26% | 16% | 31% | 28% | -3.3 | +1.1 | -2.0 | +4.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 18% | 30% | 29% | +4.5 | +1.3 | +0.6 | -6.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Hiroe Sugawara | 26% | 18% | 32% | 24% | -2.2 | +28.3 | -8.9 | -17.2 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Hiroe Sugawara | 24% | 39% | 23% | 15% | -1.6 | +12.0 | +1.9 | -12.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 52% | 21% | 7% | +46.7 | -25.1 | -12.4 | -9.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 73% | 13% | 10% | 3% | -4.4 | -4.8 | +5.6 | +3.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 67% | 14% | 14% | 5% | -9.7 | +36.8 | -10.8 | -16.2 |
| South 4 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 4,800 from Sayaka Okada | 42% | 54% | 2% | 2% | -14.3 | +6.6 | +0.5 | +7.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 23% | 71% | 3% | 3% | -6.1 | +15.5 | -0.9 | -8.5 |