Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/24 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+56.0pt). The game was decided in South 2: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +30.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 3,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +6.8 | -1.0 | -3.7 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 23% | 23% | 24% | +7.0 | -3.2 | -2.3 | -1.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,300 from Futoshi Watanabe | 35% | 22% | 22% | 21% | -3.6 | +8.3 | +1.1 | -5.7 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 32% | 27% | 22% | 20% | -10.7 | +28.8 | -9.6 | -8.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 49% | 15% | 14% | -1.0 | -1.7 | -2.9 | +5.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 20% | 49% | 14% | 17% | +2.3 | +2.0 | -13.6 | +9.3 |
| East 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 22% | 51% | 7% | 20% | -6.9 | -4.2 | -22.1 | +33.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 14% | 41% | 2% | 44% | +9.6 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -7.8 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,300 from Akina Mizuhara | 21% | 41% | 2% | 36% | -7.6 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +6.0 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 42% | 2% | 43% | +30.0 | -16.7 | -4.3 | -9.0 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 41% | 24% | 1% | 34% | +13.2 | -2.4 | -3.2 | -7.5 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 64% | 15% | 0% | 21% | +16.8 | -25.3 | +8.4 | +0.1 |