Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/24 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+56.0pt). The game was decided in South 2: Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +31.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 3,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +8.8 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -5.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 31% | 24% | 23% | 22% | +4.0 | -3.1 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 1,300 from Watanabe Futoshi | 34% | 21% | 23% | 22% | -1.9 | +6.9 | -0.4 | -4.6 |
| East 2 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,000 | 32% | 27% | 22% | 19% | -12.4 | +31.4 | -10.4 | -8.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 20% | 52% | 15% | 13% | +1.3 | -1.1 | -4.6 | +4.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,600 from Kurosawa Saki | 21% | 51% | 13% | 15% | +0.3 | +0.4 | -9.9 | +9.2 |
| East 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 21% | 53% | 8% | 18% | -5.5 | -4.4 | -23.7 | +33.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 14% | 42% | 2% | 42% | +7.3 | -1.2 | +0.3 | -6.4 |
| South 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,300 from Mizuhara Akina | 18% | 42% | 2% | 38% | -6.4 | +2.0 | -1.1 | +5.4 |
| South 2 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 44% | 2% | 42% | +31.7 | -18.7 | -3.3 | -9.6 |
| South 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 1,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 43% | 23% | 2% | 33% | +11.8 | -0.1 | -4.0 | -7.8 |
| South 4 | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 63% | 17% | 0% | 20% | +17.0 | -26.6 | +8.4 | +1.3 |