Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/24 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+74.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +31.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,100 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -2.1 | +5.4 | -2.0 | -1.3 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 24% | 28% | 24% | 24% | -1.4 | +31.7 | -1.4 | -28.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 18% | 53% | 20% | 9% | -29.3 | -0.2 | -1.2 | +30.6 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Hagiwara Masato | 7% | 54% | 18% | 21% | -3.4 | -1.9 | +16.5 | -11.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 5% | 51% | 28% | 16% | -8.1 | +12.7 | -4.7 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,700 | 3% | 65% | 19% | 13% | -1.6 | +8.6 | +1.2 | -8.2 |
| South 1 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 75% | 17% | 6% | -8.4 | +0.2 | -2.4 | +10.6 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 78% | 14% | 8% | -3.1 | +19.2 | -9.2 | -6.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 94% | 4% | 3% | -5.6 | -6.1 | -8.2 | +19.9 |
| South 3 | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 91% | 3% | 6% | -4.9 | +1.7 | -6.2 | +9.4 |
| South 4 | Hagiwara Masato ron 2,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 0% | 94% | 0% | 6% | 0.0 | -1.2 | -3.9 | +5.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 91% | 0% | 9% | -0.1 | +5.3 | +0.2 | -5.4 |