Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
12/24 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+74.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +29.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,100 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -4.2 | +5.8 | -1.6 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 23% | 29% | 23% | 24% | +0.5 | +29.4 | -0.6 | -29.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 20% | 51% | 20% | 9% | -30.9 | +1.9 | -0.6 | +29.6 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 6% | 54% | 18% | 21% | -1.0 | -1.2 | +14.9 | -12.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 5% | 52% | 28% | 15% | -8.4 | +11.3 | -3.5 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 3% | 65% | 20% | 12% | -2.5 | +10.1 | -0.8 | -6.7 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 77% | 15% | 6% | -8.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | +10.0 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 79% | 13% | 8% | -3.3 | +18.9 | -8.5 | -7.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 95% | 3% | 2% | -5.5 | -6.4 | -8.9 | +20.9 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 91% | 2% | 7% | -5.0 | +1.1 | -5.9 | +9.8 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 93% | 0% | 7% | 0.0 | -1.1 | -3.1 | +4.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 91% | 0% | 9% | 0.0 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -5.8 |