Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/7 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+79.8pt). The game was decided in East 3: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +46.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi ron 7,700 from Futoshi Watanabe | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | +19.4 | -17.6 | -2.5 | +0.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 15% | 23% | 25% | -15.4 | +31.2 | -5.4 | -10.4 |
| East 2 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 35% | 21% | 20% | +22.6 | -13.6 | -5.2 | -3.8 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000 | 45% | 21% | 17% | 17% | -18.4 | -15.2 | +46.6 | -12.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 13% | 53% | 10% | -3.6 | -1.5 | +7.6 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 21% | 11% | 60% | 9% | -1.0 | -25.7 | +26.0 | +0.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 2% | 84% | 4% | -8.3 | -7.6 | -11.0 | +26.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 1% | 75% | 14% | +5.3 | -1.3 | +0.7 | -4.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 11% | 2% | 78% | 10% | -31.4 | +24.9 | +4.0 | +2.4 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 1% | 4% | 87% | 8% | -3.3 | -6.5 | +2.9 | +6.8 |
| South 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 0% | 0% | 92% | 7% | -20.8 | +22.4 | -0.6 | -1.0 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% | +3.4 | -21.3 | -3.6 | +21.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 7,700 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% | +7.8 | -16.8 | -7.5 | +16.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 0% | 66% | 34% | -2.4 | +2.9 | +26.9 | -27.4 |