Game · 2024-25 Semifinals

4/7 Game 2

Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+79.8pt). The game was decided in East 3: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +49.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance	Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance	Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance	Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance	Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change	Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change	Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change	Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change
East 1	Ooi Takaharu ron 7,700 from Watanabe Futoshi	25%	24%	25%	26%	+19.0	-18.5	-0.4	-0.2
East 1, 1 honba	Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000	39%	14%	22%	25%	-16.3	+29.1	-4.6	-8.3
East 2	Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000	26%	33%	22%	20%	+23.4	-12.3	-8.5	-2.6
East 3	Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,000	46%	21%	16%	17%	-18.5	-15.0	+49.0	-15.5
East 3, 1 honba	Draw	26%	12%	52%	10%	-4.1	-0.9	+6.6	-1.6
East 3, 2 honba	Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi	22%	10%	58%	9%	-2.0	-25.0	+26.5	+0.4
East 3, 3 honba	Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000	11%	2%	82%	5%	-6.4	-9.1	-10.3	+25.8
East 4	Draw	10%	2%	76%	12%	+5.6	-2.0	+0.4	-4.0
South 1, 1 honba	Watanabe Futoshi ron 12,000 from Ooi Takaharu	12%	1%	77%	10%	-33.8	+26.4	+4.6	+2.8
South 2	Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,000 from Ooi Takaharu	1%	4%	87%	8%	-2.8	-6.4	+2.2	+7.0
South 3	Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu	0%	0%	92%	8%	-20.0	+21.9	+0.6	-2.4
South 4	Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi	0%	0%	95%	5%	+3.0	-21.4	-5.3	+23.7
South 4, 1 honba	Kayamori Sayaka ron 7,700 from Watanabe Futoshi	0%	0%	82%	18%	+7.7	-16.6	-6.6	+15.6
South 4, 2 honba	Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka	0%	0%	65%	35%	-2.3	+2.8	+27.0	-27.6

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)