Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/8 Game 1
Suzuki Taro finished 1st (+75.2pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000, which moved Suzuki Taro's expected points by +45.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 26% | 24% | 27% | -16.8 | -10.5 | -5.6 | +32.9 |
| East 2 | Draw | 12% | 19% | 18% | 51% | +2.4 | +1.5 | -5.6 | +1.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 13% | 18% | 17% | 52% | +1.7 | -25.0 | +23.2 | +0.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 13% | 7% | 28% | 52% | +0.7 | +2.6 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 13% | 8% | 27% | 53% | -0.3 | -0.8 | -3.5 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 7% | 23% | 57% | -11.8 | -9.6 | +44.9 | -23.5 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Suzuki Taro | 5% | 3% | 69% | 23% | +3.8 | +0.8 | -0.4 | -4.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 6,000 | 7% | 3% | 70% | 21% | +15.9 | -5.7 | -3.8 | -6.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Draw | 13% | 3% | 65% | 19% | +5.0 | -1.4 | -0.9 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 15% | 3% | 65% | 17% | -6.9 | -14.4 | -7.9 | +29.2 |
| South 2 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 6,000 | 9% | 1% | 49% | 41% | -2.8 | +9.3 | -4.3 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 8% | 2% | 47% | 43% | -2.9 | -13.2 | -9.0 | +25.1 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 23% | 74% | -6.8 | -3.8 | +35.4 | -24.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Suzuki Taro | 0% | 0% | 75% | 24% | +3.5 | +0.2 | +21.1 | -24.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | +19.0 | -0.1 | -10.7 | -8.2 |
| South 4 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 95% | 5% | -17.2 | -3.9 | -8.6 | +29.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% | +1.2 | -1.3 | -3.1 | +3.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 78% | 22% | -6.8 | -4.4 | -34.4 | +45.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,300 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 0% | 4% | 96% | 0.0 | -1.8 | +1.2 | +0.6 |