Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/8 Game 1
Taro Suzuki finished 1st (+75.2pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000, which moved Taro Suzuki's expected points by +45.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -17.0 | -7.0 | -6.7 | +30.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 17% | 19% | 52% | +6.1 | +0.2 | -5.6 | -0.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 15% | 17% | 17% | 51% | -3.7 | -21.0 | +23.2 | +1.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 8% | 29% | 51% | +3.1 | +2.5 | -3.6 | -2.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 10% | 25% | 51% | -1.8 | -2.2 | -3.6 | +7.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 8% | 21% | 59% | -11.5 | -9.8 | +46.4 | -25.1 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki | 5% | 3% | 69% | 23% | +3.3 | +0.5 | +1.3 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 6,000 | 5% | 4% | 72% | 19% | +18.0 | -7.1 | -6.3 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 3% | 65% | 18% | +4.6 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 17% | 3% | 62% | 19% | -7.4 | -14.4 | -6.4 | +28.2 |
| South 2 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 6,000 | 8% | 1% | 49% | 42% | -2.4 | +9.2 | -4.9 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 10% | 2% | 46% | 42% | -3.3 | -12.6 | -8.4 | +24.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 24% | 74% | -6.6 | -4.1 | +35.2 | -24.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 1% | 0% | 76% | 24% | +3.1 | +0.3 | +21.0 | -24.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | +18.0 | -0.1 | -10.6 | -7.4 |
| South 4 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 95% | 5% | -16.4 | -3.8 | -8.3 | +28.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% | +1.2 | -1.3 | -3.8 | +3.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 77% | 22% | -6.6 | -4.8 | -34.0 | +45.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,300 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 0% | 4% | 96% | -0.2 | -1.5 | +1.4 | +0.3 |