Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/10 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +35.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 2,100 | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | +5.2 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -3.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 29% | 24% | 25% | 22% | -0.1 | -0.3 | -6.1 | +6.6 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 28% | 25% | 21% | 26% | +0.4 | +34.1 | -2.8 | -31.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 5,200 | 24% | 50% | 17% | 9% | +17.9 | -11.6 | -4.3 | -2.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 38% | 14% | 9% | -5.0 | +4.5 | +4.0 | -3.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 35% | 42% | 17% | 7% | +1.9 | -10.1 | +9.5 | -1.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 33% | 22% | 7% | -4.4 | -1.6 | +6.4 | -0.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 33% | 32% | 27% | 7% | +0.6 | -0.3 | -6.7 | +6.4 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 33% | 22% | 9% | -9.5 | -11.7 | -11.1 | +32.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 1,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 29% | 25% | 18% | 28% | +5.6 | -2.4 | -0.5 | -2.8 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Genta Takeuchi | 36% | 24% | 18% | 23% | -15.6 | +13.3 | +1.2 | +1.0 |
| South 2 | Genta Takeuchi ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 22% | 34% | 20% | 25% | +30.5 | -3.3 | -24.8 | -2.4 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 50% | 25% | 7% | 19% | -0.6 | -10.7 | -20.2 | +31.5 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 13% | 0% | 43% | -21.6 | -9.8 | -4.2 | +35.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 0% | 96% | +2.2 | -2.9 | -1.3 | +2.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 3% | 1% | 0% | 97% | -17.7 | +25.8 | +0.4 | -8.5 |