Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/10 Game 2
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in South 2: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +32.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Suzuki Yu 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Suzuki Yu Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Asai Takaki tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -11.3 | -5.6 | +22.8 | -5.9 |
| East 2 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 3,000 | 18% | 20% | 41% | 22% | -3.2 | +10.3 | -5.8 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Suzuki Yu | 16% | 27% | 36% | 21% | -6.0 | -2.1 | +4.2 | +3.8 |
| East 3 | Asai Takaki tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 25% | 39% | 23% | -6.2 | -12.6 | +30.6 | -11.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Suzuki Yu tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 12% | 70% | 12% | +29.7 | -7.9 | -14.2 | -7.6 |
| East 4 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Asai Takaki | 21% | 12% | 56% | 12% | +3.0 | +23.2 | -20.7 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 5,200 | 27% | 27% | 36% | 10% | -11.8 | +18.6 | -4.9 | -1.9 |
| South 2 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 44% | 30% | 9% | -10.0 | +32.6 | -13.7 | -8.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 81% | 11% | 4% | -13.5 | -12.1 | -13.4 | +39.0 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Suzuki Yu | 3% | 72% | 10% | 16% | -13.2 | +3.3 | -4.9 | +14.8 |
| South 4 | Suzuki Yu ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 78% | 2% | 20% | +47.7 | +10.0 | +1.7 | -59.4 |