Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/11 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+78.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +36.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 6,000 | 26% | 26% | 23% | 25% | +13.3 | -5.5 | -3.1 | -4.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 36% | 22% | 22% | 20% | +20.9 | -21.7 | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 52% | 10% | 18% | 19% | -6.9 | +0.8 | -0.9 | +6.9 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 47% | 11% | 18% | 24% | -8.3 | +28.1 | -9.8 | -10.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 40% | 25% | 15% | 20% | -11.8 | -1.9 | +12.5 | +1.2 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 31% | 24% | 23% | 22% | +8.4 | +2.1 | -0.4 | -10.1 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 26% | 21% | 16% | -12.6 | -13.1 | -10.4 | +36.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 17% | 16% | 41% | -11.1 | -10.5 | -11.2 | +32.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 13% | 8% | 7% | 73% | -11.0 | -8.7 | -9.6 | +29.3 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,800 from Futoshi Watanabe | 2% | 1% | 1% | 96% | -14.9 | +2.9 | +3.5 | +8.5 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 1% | 1% | 98% | -5.7 | +20.6 | -3.1 | -11.9 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,100 | 1% | 4% | 1% | 94% | -4.3 | +1.4 | -0.2 | +3.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 2% | 1% | 97% | +4.8 | +1.3 | -4.7 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 3% | 1% | 96% | -2.5 | -2.2 | +5.9 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -2.8 | -0.3 | +4.1 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -4.7 | -0.8 | +5.8 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -4.2 | -4.1 | +9.4 | -1.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% | -2.9 | +2.8 | -9.3 | +9.5 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +29.2 | +3.2 | -25.6 | -6.8 |