Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/11 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+78.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +35.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 23% | 24% | 26% | +14.8 | -2.9 | -6.4 | -5.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 7,700 from Nakabayashi Kei | 37% | 22% | 20% | 21% | +20.3 | -21.2 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 54% | 10% | 19% | 18% | -7.5 | -0.6 | +2.5 | +5.6 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 48% | 10% | 19% | 23% | -8.4 | +29.0 | -11.4 | -9.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Watanabe Futoshi | 41% | 25% | 16% | 19% | -14.1 | +0.2 | +12.9 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,600 from Sasaki Hisato | 30% | 26% | 23% | 21% | +11.1 | -1.0 | -2.7 | -7.4 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 24% | 20% | 17% | -12.5 | -12.5 | -10.3 | +35.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 16% | 14% | 42% | -12.5 | -9.2 | -9.1 | +30.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000 | 13% | 8% | 7% | 72% | -10.8 | -8.7 | -9.9 | +29.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,800 from Watanabe Futoshi | 2% | 1% | 1% | 96% | -15.0 | +3.9 | +3.0 | +8.0 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 1% | 1% | 1% | 97% | -6.4 | +19.3 | -2.4 | -10.6 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,100 | 1% | 3% | 1% | 95% | -3.5 | +0.8 | 0.0 | +2.6 |
| South 2 | Draw | 0% | 2% | 1% | 97% | +4.6 | +0.1 | -3.1 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 3% | 1% | 96% | -1.9 | 0.0 | +3.5 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -2.8 | -1.4 | +4.0 | +0.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -5.6 | -0.8 | +6.7 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -3.2 | -3.9 | +8.6 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% | -3.7 | +2.8 | -8.8 | +9.7 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +29.4 | +3.4 | -25.7 | -7.1 |