Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/11 Game 2
Go Kobayashi finished 1st (+61.6pt). The game was decided in South 1: Go Kobayashi tsumo 18,000, which moved Go Kobayashi's expected points by +49.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -1.9 | -0.6 | +19.4 | -16.8 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 1,100 | 22% | 24% | 38% | 16% | +8.2 | -6.5 | -3.7 | +2.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 20% | 35% | 18% | -3.5 | +7.1 | -3.6 | +0.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 25% | 32% | 17% | -1.6 | +29.4 | -1.6 | -26.1 |
| South 1 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 18,000 | 21% | 48% | 27% | 4% | +49.0 | -21.7 | -18.7 | -8.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 70% | 18% | 10% | 3% | -2.3 | +4.8 | -3.1 | +0.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 68% | 22% | 8% | 2% | +11.4 | -3.4 | -7.2 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 86% | 9% | 4% | 1% | -1.2 | -2.4 | +4.7 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 84% | 9% | 5% | 2% | +1.9 | -1.6 | -13.0 | +12.6 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Go Kobayashi | 93% | 4% | 0% | 3% | +1.9 | +2.9 | +4.7 | -9.5 |