Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/14 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+52.5pt). The game was decided in South 3: Date Arisa tsumo 8,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +43.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Asai Takaki tsumo 2,700 | 23% | 25% | 26% | 26% | -4.6 | -3.7 | -1.8 | +10.1 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa ron 5,800 from Asai Takaki | 20% | 23% | 24% | 33% | +1.2 | +16.3 | -0.4 | -17.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 21% | 34% | 24% | 21% | -20.8 | -2.4 | +20.9 | +2.3 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,200 from Suzuki Taro | 10% | 30% | 37% | 23% | +17.3 | -0.8 | -15.4 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Suzuki Taro ron 2,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 19% | 31% | 26% | 24% | -8.8 | +4.8 | +7.6 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Draw | 13% | 35% | 33% | 19% | +6.3 | -3.4 | -2.6 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Asai Takaki ron 6,400 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 17% | 32% | 31% | 20% | -26.6 | -0.6 | -2.3 | +29.5 |
| South 2 | Suzuki Taro ron 2,600 from Asai Takaki | 4% | 29% | 26% | 41% | -1.8 | -6.1 | +17.3 | -9.4 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 22% | 44% | 31% | -7.5 | +43.2 | -21.4 | -14.2 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 79% | 7% | 13% | -2.2 | -6.9 | +3.7 | +5.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 68% | 14% | 18% | +8.4 | +12.5 | -0.5 | -20.4 |