Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series

4/14 Game 2

Arisa Date finished 1st (+52.5pt). The game was decided in South 3: Arisa Date tsumo 8,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +42.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hands	Result	Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance	Arisa Date 1st-place chance	Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance	Takaki Asai 1st-place chance	Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change	Arisa Date Expected pt change	Taro Suzuki Expected pt change	Takaki Asai Expected pt change
East 1	Takaki Asai tsumo 2,700	25%	26%	26%	24%	-4.1	-5.7	-1.4	+11.2
East 2	Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Takaki Asai	22%	21%	25%	32%	-2.2	+18.9	-2.4	-14.4
East 2, 1 honba	Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	20%	34%	22%	24%	-20.4	-4.0	+24.5	-0.1
East 3	Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Taro Suzuki	10%	28%	40%	22%	+15.6	+4.1	-20.2	+0.5
East 4	Taro Suzuki ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	18%	33%	24%	25%	-7.0	0.0	+9.7	-2.7
South 1	Exhaustive draw	14%	34%	32%	21%	+7.8	-3.4	-0.9	-3.5
South 1, 1 honba	Takaki Asai ron 6,400 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	18%	32%	31%	19%	-27.5	-1.4	-1.9	+30.8
South 2	Taro Suzuki ron 2,600 from Takaki Asai	4%	27%	28%	42%	-1.4	-4.1	+14.7	-9.2
South 3	Arisa Date tsumo 8,000	4%	22%	42%	32%	-8.8	+42.2	-20.3	-13.0
South 4	Exhaustive draw	0%	78%	7%	14%	-1.2	-6.3	+3.3	+4.2
South 4, 1 honba	Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000	0%	69%	13%	19%	+7.6	+12.8	0.0	-20.4