Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/15 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+80.2pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +40.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Genta Takeuchi ron 2,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | +11.4 | -1.3 | -9.2 | -0.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 33% | 24% | 19% | 24% | -3.1 | -28.9 | -1.1 | +33.2 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,200 from Sho Shiratori | 27% | 9% | 15% | 49% | +0.1 | -4.2 | +10.0 | -5.9 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Genta Takeuchi | 28% | 7% | 22% | 43% | -9.5 | +12.0 | -6.2 | +3.7 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 11% | 18% | 50% | -8.3 | -11.1 | +40.9 | -21.4 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 16% | 6% | 53% | 25% | -4.3 | -10.2 | +13.8 | +0.7 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 6% | 3% | 70% | 21% | +0.6 | -20.7 | +23.4 | -3.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% | -0.5 | -0.5 | +2.7 | -1.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -1.4 | -1.1 | +2.8 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Genta Takeuchi | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -12.4 | +0.1 | -2.2 | +14.5 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% | -0.2 | -0.2 | +5.8 | -5.3 |