Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/18 Game 1
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+56.1pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +43.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -2.2 | +2.2 | +19.3 | -19.3 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,300 from Sho Shiratori | 22% | 24% | 39% | 14% | +0.2 | -11.5 | +3.0 | +8.2 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 17% | 43% | 18% | -4.8 | -4.0 | -12.7 | +21.5 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 20% | 15% | 32% | 33% | -18.2 | +20.5 | +0.5 | -2.7 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Futoshi Watanabe | 11% | 28% | 33% | 28% | +19.9 | -0.1 | -21.1 | +1.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 28% | 19% | 32% | -21.5 | -11.3 | +43.4 | -10.6 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 17% | 55% | 21% | +32.2 | -17.5 | -6.0 | -8.7 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 8% | 49% | 18% | -4.5 | -3.9 | +3.6 | +4.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 7% | 52% | 20% | +10.5 | -1.0 | -2.8 | -6.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 29% | 7% | 49% | 16% | -8.0 | -13.2 | +28.0 | -6.8 |