Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/18 Game 1
Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+56.1pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +43.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -2.7 | -0.9 | +21.5 | -17.8 |
| East 2 | Kurosawa Saki ron 1,300 from Shiratori Sho | 22% | 23% | 40% | 15% | +1.1 | -8.6 | +3.0 | +4.5 |
| East 3 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 17% | 43% | 16% | -6.1 | -4.8 | -12.2 | +23.2 |
| East 4 | Shiratori Sho ron 5,200 from Mizuhara Akina | 19% | 16% | 33% | 32% | -18.6 | +17.6 | +1.9 | -1.0 |
| South 1 | Mizuhara Akina ron 5,800 from Watanabe Futoshi | 11% | 26% | 34% | 29% | +20.4 | +3.0 | -22.0 | -1.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 30% | 19% | 29% | -21.7 | -12.8 | +43.0 | -8.5 |
| South 2 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 17% | 56% | 20% | +32.9 | -18.8 | -6.6 | -7.5 |
| South 3 | Draw | 25% | 7% | 49% | 18% | -4.1 | -1.8 | +2.7 | +3.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 22% | 8% | 51% | 19% | +9.1 | -0.2 | -1.9 | -7.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 27% | 9% | 49% | 15% | -7.1 | -14.6 | +27.9 | -6.2 |