Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series

4/18 Game 2

Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+54.5pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +22.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance	Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance	Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance	Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance	Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change	Taro Suzuki Expected pt change	Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change	Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change
East 1	Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma	24%	24%	27%	24%	-13.0	+1.3	+11.5	+0.2
East 2	Taro Suzuki ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	16%	25%	35%	25%	-2.3	+4.0	-4.5	+2.8
East 2, 1 honba	Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki	15%	28%	31%	26%	-0.1	-22.1	+22.9	-0.6
East 3	Exhaustive draw	13%	13%	50%	23%	+2.4	-6.6	-1.5	+5.7
East 3, 1 honba	Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,100	14%	10%	49%	28%	-0.9	-4.3	-1.5	+6.6
East 4	Exhaustive draw	14%	8%	47%	32%	+1.3	-2.3	+5.9	-4.9
South 1, 1 honba	Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki	13%	7%	54%	26%	-4.1	-9.4	+16.0	-2.4
South 2	Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi	5%	3%	75%	17%	-2.9	+33.8	+2.1	-33.0
South 2, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	4%	10%	79%	7%	-3.5	+8.8	-3.2	-2.1
South 2, 2 honba	Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000	4%	14%	76%	6%	-11.7	-15.0	-1.0	+27.7
South 3	Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000	2%	6%	77%	15%	+27.6	-12.3	-4.9	-10.4
South 4	Exhaustive draw	6%	4%	77%	13%	+5.8	-0.5	-9.9	+4.6
South 4, 1 honba	Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma	14%	7%	62%	17%	-15.6	-15.0	+21.1	+9.5

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)