Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/18 Game 2
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+54.5pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +24.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -12.9 | -0.9 | +11.0 | +2.8 |
| East 2 | Suzuki Taro ron 2,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 16% | 24% | 34% | 26% | -0.8 | +6.3 | -5.1 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro | 17% | 29% | 28% | 27% | -1.4 | -23.3 | +24.7 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Draw | 12% | 12% | 50% | 25% | +3.3 | -8.1 | +1.4 | +3.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,100 | 14% | 9% | 52% | 26% | -2.4 | -2.4 | -4.1 | +8.9 |
| East 4 | Draw | 13% | 7% | 47% | 32% | +0.1 | -0.8 | +6.6 | -5.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Suzuki Taro | 12% | 8% | 55% | 25% | -2.4 | -11.5 | +14.0 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Suzuki Taro ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 5% | 3% | 72% | 20% | -3.5 | +35.8 | +2.0 | -34.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 4% | 12% | 78% | 6% | -2.2 | +7.6 | -2.6 | -2.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 17% | 74% | 5% | -12.1 | -16.0 | -0.7 | +28.8 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 6% | 77% | 16% | +28.5 | -13.1 | -5.0 | -10.3 |
| South 4 | Draw | 6% | 3% | 78% | 14% | +5.8 | +0.6 | -10.0 | +3.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 15% | 7% | 60% | 17% | -16.4 | -14.6 | +21.0 | +10.0 |