Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/22 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+62.5pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Asai Takaki, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +34.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +5.4 | -2.3 | +1.7 | -4.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 24% | 27% | 21% | -8.0 | +9.8 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| East 2 | Asai Takaki tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 31% | 25% | 22% | -4.9 | -15.9 | +23.8 | -3.0 |
| East 3 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 18% | 17% | 44% | 20% | -6.6 | +1.6 | +1.8 | +3.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 14% | 18% | 47% | 20% | -3.9 | +2.5 | +7.0 | -5.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Asai Takaki | 12% | 19% | 54% | 15% | -7.2 | +34.2 | -26.0 | -1.0 |
| South 2 | Asai Takaki ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 7% | 51% | 26% | 15% | +0.7 | -5.8 | +30.5 | -25.4 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 35% | 57% | 4% | -3.1 | +31.6 | -23.3 | -5.2 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 87% | 11% | 2% | -2.5 | +4.0 | -4.4 | +2.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Asai Takaki tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 93% | 5% | 2% | +3.2 | +2.9 | +3.9 | -10.0 |