Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/22 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+62.5pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +34.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +2.4 | -2.4 | +5.2 | -5.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 23% | 27% | 22% | -6.3 | +9.9 | -3.2 | -0.4 |
| East 2 | Takaki Asai tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 30% | 26% | 22% | -5.0 | -16.1 | +26.1 | -5.0 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 17% | 17% | 47% | 19% | -4.4 | +1.2 | -2.6 | +5.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 18% | 44% | 22% | -4.8 | +3.6 | +8.5 | -7.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai | 12% | 19% | 54% | 15% | -7.6 | +34.2 | -25.0 | -1.6 |
| South 2 | Takaki Asai ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 8% | 51% | 27% | 14% | +0.8 | -6.1 | +30.2 | -24.9 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 36% | 57% | 4% | -3.6 | +32.3 | -24.6 | -4.1 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 88% | 9% | 2% | -2.4 | +3.8 | -3.0 | +1.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 94% | 5% | 2% | +3.2 | +2.4 | +3.6 | -9.1 |