Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/25 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+70.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +33.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -8.3 | -4.5 | +15.7 | -2.9 |
| East 2 | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,200 from Hinata Aiko | 19% | 22% | 35% | 24% | -0.3 | -10.6 | +1.2 | +9.7 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Mizuhara Akina | 18% | 15% | 38% | 30% | +9.1 | -0.6 | -9.6 | +1.0 |
| East 4 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 25% | 15% | 28% | 32% | -23.6 | -0.4 | +25.8 | -1.8 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 13% | 51% | 26% | -18.2 | -6.6 | -12.6 | +37.4 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Hinata Aiko | 1% | 6% | 28% | 65% | +5.4 | -11.1 | +1.0 | +4.7 |
| South 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 1% | 1% | 25% | 73% | -5.6 | +1.7 | +7.5 | -3.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 1% | 33% | 66% | -4.9 | -5.1 | +33.5 | -23.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 0% | 83% | 17% | -4.6 | +4.9 | -1.8 | +1.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% | -3.7 | +4.5 | +10.5 | -11.3 |