Game · 2024-25 Semifinals
4/29 Game 1
Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+54.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +32.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,600 from Date Arisa | 27% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -2.5 | +9.2 | -8.6 | +1.9 |
| East 2 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 30% | 21% | 25% | +24.6 | -15.2 | -6.1 | -3.3 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 43% | 17% | 17% | 23% | -3.0 | -4.5 | -15.3 | +22.8 |
| East 4 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 40% | 14% | 8% | 38% | +32.4 | -7.3 | -5.8 | -19.4 |
| South 1 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 76% | 7% | 4% | 13% | -9.4 | +23.1 | -7.3 | -6.4 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 66% | 17% | 3% | 13% | -7.5 | -23.6 | -7.0 | +38.2 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa ron 5,800 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 53% | 3% | 2% | 43% | +6.0 | -0.3 | +11.7 | -17.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 68% | 4% | 4% | 24% | -19.2 | -20.3 | +60.1 | -20.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,600 from Mizuhara Akina | 42% | 2% | 40% | 17% | +15.1 | -7.2 | -4.9 | -3.0 |
| South 4 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 64% | 0% | 24% | 12% | +15.8 | +26.8 | -6.6 | -35.9 |