Game · 2024-25 Semifinal Series
4/29 Game 1
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+54.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +33.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 24% | 24% | 27% | 26% | -2.5 | +10.4 | -10.3 | +2.5 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 31% | 21% | 28% | +28.2 | -13.8 | -6.2 | -8.2 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 44% | 19% | 16% | 20% | -5.4 | -6.5 | -12.3 | +24.2 |
| East 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 15% | 9% | 38% | +33.7 | -5.8 | -7.0 | -20.9 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 75% | 8% | 4% | 13% | -8.6 | +22.6 | -7.8 | -6.2 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 68% | 17% | 3% | 12% | -8.9 | -24.5 | -6.7 | +40.1 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 52% | 3% | 2% | 43% | +6.9 | +0.1 | +11.3 | -18.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 67% | 4% | 4% | 25% | -20.5 | -20.1 | +59.9 | -19.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,600 from Akina Mizuhara | 41% | 2% | 40% | 17% | +14.9 | -7.6 | -4.1 | -3.2 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 62% | 0% | 26% | 12% | +17.3 | +26.8 | -7.2 | -36.9 |