Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Finals

5/4 Game 1

Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+61.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +45.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Nikaido Aki● Setokuma Naoki● Sasaki Hisato● Suzuki Daisuke0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Nikaido● Setokuma● Sasaki● Suzuki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Suzuki Daisuke
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Suzuki Daisuke
Expected pt change
East 1Nikaido Aki tsumo 18,00028%25%24%24%+41.9-14.0-14.7-13.3
East 1, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki tsumo 8,00061%14%12%13%-9.7+18.5-4.4-4.5
East 2Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki53%24%12%11%-5.2-1.1+6.7-0.4
East 3Nikaido Aki ron 1,300 from Setokuma Naoki48%24%15%13%+7.4-3.1-3.1-1.1
East 4Sasaki Hisato tsumo 16,00057%21%11%11%-17.0-11.4+51.1-22.7
South 1Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Suzuki Daisuke33%12%51%3%-2.0-1.3+7.2-3.9
South 2Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Suzuki Daisuke28%10%60%2%-2.6-5.4+13.9-5.9
South 3Suzuki Daisuke tsumo 2,00017%2%80%1%+0.4-1.3-0.2+1.1
South 4Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,00014%1%84%1%+45.7-2.2-34.9-8.5

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)