Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Finals

5/5 Game 1

Kurosawa Saki finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 4, 4 honba: Kurosawa Saki ron 7,700 from Nagai Kosuke, which moved Kurosawa Saki's expected points by +39.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1South 2End● Kurosawa Saki● Takamiya Mari● Nakada Kana● Nagai Kosuke0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Kurosawa● Takamiya● Nakada● Nagai
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTakamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Nakada Kana
1st-place chance
Nagai Kosuke
1st-place chance
Kurosawa Saki
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Nakada Kana
Expected pt change
Nagai Kosuke
Expected pt change
Kurosawa Saki
Expected pt change
East 1Nagai Kosuke tsumo 4,00024%25%25%26%-7.7-4.1+16.7-4.9
East 2Draw19%21%37%23%+0.3-5.4+5.9-0.7
East 3, 1 honbaDraw19%17%43%21%-2.8-1.8+6.4-1.8
East 3, 2 honbaKurosawa Saki ron 5,200 from Nakada Kana17%15%48%20%-0.6-15.8-1.7+18.1
East 4Nakada Kana tsumo 4,00016%8%46%31%-4.1+9.5-0.4-4.9
South 1Draw14%12%48%26%+8.9-3.6-1.9-3.4
South 1, 1 honbaDraw20%12%45%23%+0.8+5.6-3.4-2.9
South 1, 2 honbaDraw20%14%43%24%+4.5-2.3-4.7+2.5
South 1, 3 honbaDraw23%13%38%26%+6.8-3.7+2.4-5.5
South 1, 4 honbaKurosawa Saki ron 3,200 from Takamiya Mari28%12%39%21%-25.5-4.1-2.0+31.6
South 2Nakada Kana tsumo 12,0009%9%34%49%-14.9+40.9-13.3-12.8
South 2, 1 honbaNakada Kana tsumo 2,4006%33%26%35%-2.6+10.6-3.9-4.0
South 2, 2 honbaDraw4%44%22%31%-2.7-2.7-3.4+8.7
South 3, 3 honbaDraw2%41%19%38%+3.5+7.8-8.6-2.7
South 4, 4 honbaKurosawa Saki ron 7,700 from Nagai Kosuke3%56%11%31%+7.4-17.5-29.2+39.2
South 4, 5 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Kurosawa Saki0%9%0%91%+10.3-2.1-5.4-2.8

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)