Game · 2025-26 Final Series
5/5 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 4, 4 honba: Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Kosuke Nagai, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +41.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 26% | 26% | 23% | -8.3 | -5.7 | +15.0 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 22% | 37% | 24% | -2.0 | -5.6 | +9.2 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 17% | 45% | 22% | -0.1 | -1.7 | +6.5 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Kana Nakada | 17% | 15% | 51% | 18% | -1.5 | -15.3 | -4.7 | +21.6 |
| East 4 | Kana Nakada tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 8% | 45% | 31% | -2.8 | +9.0 | +1.3 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 12% | 48% | 26% | +9.0 | -2.3 | -4.1 | -2.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 12% | 43% | 25% | +1.8 | +4.0 | -2.4 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 14% | 42% | 23% | +3.4 | -2.3 | -2.3 | +1.3 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 13% | 40% | 24% | +6.1 | -3.9 | +0.5 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,200 from Mari Takamiya | 28% | 11% | 39% | 22% | -23.8 | -3.6 | -2.7 | +30.1 |
| South 2 | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 8% | 33% | 48% | -15.4 | +42.2 | -11.8 | -15.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kana Nakada tsumo 2,400 | 5% | 35% | 26% | 34% | -2.3 | +9.8 | -4.1 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 45% | 22% | 29% | -3.5 | -2.7 | -3.0 | +9.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 41% | 19% | 36% | +3.1 | +9.3 | -9.6 | -2.9 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Kosuke Nagai | 3% | 60% | 10% | 28% | +8.1 | -20.4 | -28.9 | +41.2 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 1% | 8% | 0% | 92% | +9.7 | -1.0 | -5.4 | -3.3 |