Game · 2025-26 Final Series
5/5 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+78.4pt). The game was decided in South 3: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +50.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 27% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -3.7 | +3.7 | +13.5 | -13.6 |
| East 2 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 26% | 33% | 18% | -6.9 | -13.4 | +25.0 | -4.6 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,900 from Arisa Date | 16% | 15% | 56% | 13% | -1.8 | -2.0 | +9.3 | -5.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 12% | 12% | 66% | 10% | +1.6 | -27.0 | +23.2 | +2.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,000 | 6% | 2% | 86% | 6% | +6.1 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -2.9 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 7,800 | 8% | 2% | 87% | 4% | -7.6 | -5.1 | -4.6 | +17.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 2% | 83% | 9% | +35.6 | -6.5 | -10.6 | -18.4 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 28% | 1% | 68% | 3% | -7.0 | -16.4 | +1.2 | +22.2 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 20% | 0% | 69% | 11% | +3.2 | -1.7 | -20.5 | +19.0 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 0% | 45% | 25% | -19.5 | -2.4 | -28.3 | +50.3 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 94% | -5.6 | -3.9 | -4.6 | +14.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -6.6 | -1.1 | +10.2 | -2.5 |