Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Finals

5/5 Game 2

Date Arisa finished 1st (+78.4pt). The game was decided in South 3: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +50.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Date Arisa● Honda Tomohiro● Uchikawa Kotaro● Tojyo Rio0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Date● Honda● Uchikawa● Tojyo
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHonda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Uchikawa Kotaro
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Date Arisa
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
Uchikawa Kotaro
Expected pt change
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
Date Arisa
Expected pt change
East 1Tojyo Rio ron 5,200 from Date Arisa27%22%24%26%-4.7+2.4+15.1-12.8
East 2Tojyo Rio tsumo 8,00023%23%35%19%-6.1-11.1+23.5-6.4
East 3Tojyo Rio ron 2,900 from Date Arisa16%15%56%13%-0.9-1.7+7.3-4.7
East 3, 1 honbaTojyo Rio ron 12,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro14%12%64%11%+1.2-27.7+25.2+1.2
East 3, 2 honbaHonda Tomohiro tsumo 2,0007%2%86%5%+4.7-0.4-1.6-2.7
East 4Date Arisa tsumo 7,8007%1%87%5%-6.2-6.2-4.6+17.0
East 4, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro tsumo 12,0007%1%83%9%+33.3-5.7-9.6-18.0
South 1Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro26%1%69%4%-6.1-16.4+1.7+20.8
South 2Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio18%0%73%9%+2.6-1.3-20.7+19.4
South 3Date Arisa tsumo 12,00029%0%46%25%-18.9-2.7-28.9+50.5
South 4Date Arisa tsumo 12,0004%0%3%93%-5.3-3.9-5.5+14.8
South 4, 1 honbaDraw0%0%0%100%-6.6-1.1+10.2-2.5

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)