Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Finals

5/7 Game 1

Shimoishi Geki finished 1st (+55.6pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Shimoishi Geki tsumo 12,000, which moved Shimoishi Geki's expected points by +34.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Shimoishi Geki● Sasaki Hisato● Nikaido Aki● Hagiwara Masato0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Shimoishi● Sasaki● Nikaido● Hagiwara
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultShimoishi Geki
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Hagiwara Masato
1st-place chance
Shimoishi Geki
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
Hagiwara Masato
Expected pt change
East 1Shimoishi Geki ron 7,700 from Sasaki Hisato25%24%25%25%+19.7-18.6-0.4-0.7
East 1, 1 honbaNikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato39%13%24%24%-1.5-0.5+21.6-19.6
East 2Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,00036%13%39%12%-10.3+30.9-8.9-11.7
East 2, 1 honbaShimoishi Geki tsumo 12,00029%30%32%9%+34.0-17.5-11.8-4.7
East 3Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,00059%15%20%7%-9.1+33.9-17.1-7.7
East 4Shimoishi Geki tsumo 8,00047%40%10%4%+20.7-7.6-3.5-9.7
South 1Draw70%25%5%1%+2.3-5.3+4.3-1.4
South 1, 1 honbaHagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Shimoishi Geki74%19%6%1%-19.6+6.0-1.4+15.0
South 2Draw56%31%9%4%+2.7-4.3+4.6-3.0
South 3, 1 honbaDraw61%26%10%3%-2.5-1.6+5.3-1.3
South 3, 2 honbaDraw58%26%13%3%-3.9-1.2+6.4-1.2
South 3, 3 honbaSasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Hagiwara Masato52%27%18%3%-6.8+26.5-13.2-6.4
South 4Draw34%62%3%2%+0.3-3.0-0.4+3.1
South 4, 1 honbaShimoishi Geki tsumo 1,10036%57%4%2%+29.9-21.8-2.6-5.5

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)