Game · 2025-26 Final Series

5/7 Game 1

Geki Shimoishi finished 1st (+55.6pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Geki Shimoishi tsumo 12,000, which moved Geki Shimoishi's expected points by +32.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance	Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance	Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance	Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance	Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change	Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change	Aki Nikaido Expected pt change	Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change
East 1	Geki Shimoishi ron 7,700 from Hisato Sasaki	24%	24%	25%	27%	+19.5	-18.5	+0.7	-1.7
East 1, 1 honba	Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara	38%	14%	23%	25%	-0.3	+1.3	+19.8	-20.7
East 2	Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000	36%	14%	37%	13%	-11.1	+30.1	-8.7	-10.3
East 2, 1 honba	Geki Shimoishi tsumo 12,000	28%	32%	30%	10%	+32.5	-15.6	-9.5	-7.5
East 3	Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000	57%	17%	20%	6%	-6.5	+30.0	-16.7	-6.8
East 4	Geki Shimoishi tsumo 8,000	47%	38%	10%	4%	+18.9	-6.6	-4.1	-8.3
South 1	Exhaustive draw	69%	24%	6%	1%	+3.2	-4.3	+4.2	-3.1
South 1, 1 honba	Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Geki Shimoishi	73%	20%	6%	1%	-20.0	+5.2	-1.7	+16.5
South 2	Exhaustive draw	55%	32%	9%	4%	+1.8	-4.0	+5.2	-3.0
South 3, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	60%	27%	10%	3%	-1.4	-2.6	+5.8	-1.7
South 3, 2 honba	Exhaustive draw	57%	24%	15%	3%	-3.4	-3.0	+6.6	-0.2
South 3, 3 honba	Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara	53%	24%	19%	4%	-5.4	+28.1	-15.6	-7.1
South 4	Exhaustive draw	36%	60%	3%	1%	-2.4	-1.4	+0.8	+3.0
South 4, 1 honba	Geki Shimoishi tsumo 1,100	35%	58%	5%	2%	+31.0	-22.5	-2.8	-5.6

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)