Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Finals

5/7 Game 2

Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+78.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +26.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Honda Tomohiro● Takamiya Mari● Nakada Kana● Katsumata Kenji0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Honda● Takamiya● Nakada● Katsumata
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTakamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Nakada Kana
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Nakada Kana
Expected pt change
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
East 1Honda Tomohiro ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji25%24%25%25%-4.5+0.2+11.0-6.7
East 2Draw21%24%33%22%+2.4+3.3-4.5-1.2
East 2, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 2,000 from Nakada Kana23%28%29%20%+0.5-10.1+12.8-3.2
East 3Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Takamiya Mari23%20%39%18%-17.6-1.9+1.3+18.2
East 4Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,00013%18%41%29%-6.2-5.7+26.1-14.2
South 1Katsumata Kenji tsumo 1,5007%11%70%13%-5.3-2.4+1.7+6.1
South 2Katsumata Kenji ron 1,600 from Nakada Kana3%9%73%15%-1.7-8.6+4.4+5.8
South 3Honda Tomohiro tsumo 7,8001%3%81%15%-3.2-3.8+12.2-5.2
South 3, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro tsumo 18,0000%0%92%7%-4.9-8.1+23.3-10.4
South 3, 2 honbaKatsumata Kenji tsumo 12,0000%0%100%0%-7.5-6.0-8.1+21.6
South 4Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro0%0%97%3%+15.7-11.5-2.2-2.0

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)