Game · 2025-26 Final Series
5/8 Game 2
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+103.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Rio Tojyo ron 18,000 from Saki Kurosawa, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +53.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,900 from Kosuke Nagai | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | +10.9 | -6.8 | -3.6 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 33% | 19% | 22% | 26% | +27.1 | -27.5 | +1.0 | -0.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000 | 54% | 7% | 19% | 20% | +35.9 | -7.3 | -13.1 | -15.5 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 87% | 2% | 5% | 6% | -1.3 | -1.1 | +4.7 | -2.3 |
| East 2 | Kosuke Nagai ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 86% | 2% | 6% | 6% | -20.0 | +24.2 | -1.4 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 16,000 | 71% | 9% | 12% | 9% | -11.2 | -21.3 | +39.3 | -6.7 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 55% | 3% | 35% | 7% | -1.9 | -4.2 | -8.8 | +14.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 3% | 29% | 12% | -1.2 | -2.5 | -2.2 | +5.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 18,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 56% | 2% | 27% | 15% | -52.1 | -0.2 | -0.8 | +53.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 2% | 24% | 64% | -7.3 | -4.7 | -12.0 | +24.0 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 18,000 | 3% | 1% | 8% | 88% | -7.5 | -6.8 | -9.5 | +23.8 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +3.9 | -1.9 | -0.2 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 1% | 0% | 1% | 98% | -8.1 | -0.8 | +8.5 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +16.3 | -8.9 | -6.3 | -1.0 |
| South 3 | Kosuke Nagai ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -7.9 | +4.5 | +3.3 | +0.1 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.8 | +11.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -2.3 | +8.4 | -4.8 | -1.3 |