Game · 2025-26 Finals
5/12 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+108.7pt). The game was decided in East 2: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +26.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Shimoishi Geki 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Shimoishi Geki Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 27% | 24% | 26% | -12.2 | -7.2 | -4.2 | +23.6 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 20% | 21% | 44% | -6.1 | -15.0 | -5.1 | +26.2 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Shimoishi Geki | 9% | 8% | 14% | 69% | +1.1 | +14.1 | -16.1 | +0.9 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 13% | 7% | 72% | -6.2 | -10.7 | -5.4 | +22.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shimoishi Geki tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 91% | -8.0 | -5.7 | +19.4 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Draw | 2% | 4% | 4% | 90% | -5.6 | +7.0 | -1.7 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 4% | 5% | 92% | +11.3 | -15.1 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 96% | -10.5 | +27.8 | -17.4 | 0.0 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,900 from Takamiya Mari | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -6.2 | +1.1 | +2.4 | +2.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 24,000 from Shimoishi Geki | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +14.7 | +3.2 | -42.2 | +24.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.0 | -4.0 | -4.5 | +12.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Takamiya Mari | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -6.0 | +6.6 | +0.4 | -1.1 |