Game · 2025-26 Final Series
5/12 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+108.7pt). The game was decided in East 1: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +25.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -16.4 | -4.1 | -4.9 | +25.4 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 21% | 19% | 45% | -5.1 | -15.1 | -4.1 | +24.2 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Geki Shimoishi | 10% | 9% | 13% | 68% | 0.0 | +14.0 | -14.5 | +0.5 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 14% | 7% | 71% | -6.0 | -11.0 | -6.7 | +23.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Geki Shimoishi tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 93% | -6.5 | -6.0 | +18.9 | -6.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 3% | 5% | 90% | -6.9 | +7.0 | -0.9 | +0.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 4% | 4% | 92% | +11.4 | -14.3 | +0.8 | +2.1 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 96% | -10.0 | +27.2 | -17.5 | +0.2 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -6.8 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 24,000 from Geki Shimoishi | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +15.4 | +2.5 | -42.1 | +24.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.6 | -4.0 | -4.2 | +12.8 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -5.6 | +6.4 | +0.4 | -1.2 |