Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Finals

5/14 Game 2

Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+69.8pt). The game was decided in East 3: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +32.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 1End● Katsumata Kenji● Sasaki Hisato● Honda Tomohiro● Tojyo Rio0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Katsumata● Sasaki● Honda● Tojyo
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
East 1Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Sasaki Hisato24%27%25%25%-7.7-2.2+7.2+2.7
East 2Draw20%25%30%26%-5.1+2.6+4.8-2.2
East 2, 1 honbaTojyo Rio tsumo 2,00016%26%33%25%-1.8-7.0+0.5+8.2
East 3Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,00015%20%34%30%-9.6-9.6+32.6-13.4
East 3, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio8%12%64%16%+3.0+1.6+24.4-29.0
East 3, 2 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato4%5%88%3%-18.2+20.2-3.6+1.7
East 4Draw2%11%84%3%-2.5-0.3-1.9+4.8
East 4, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato2%13%81%4%-8.8+11.8+0.2-3.2
South 1Sasaki Hisato ron 5,800 from Honda Tomohiro1%17%81%2%+9.0-10.9+2.1-0.2
South 1, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro tsumo 5,2002%11%86%2%-7.4+11.3-2.1-1.7
South 2Sasaki Hisato tsumo 4,0000%15%83%1%+9.3-8.4+3.9-4.8
South 3Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Honda Tomohiro0%5%94%1%+31.3-26.0+0.8-6.1
South 4Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio0%0%99%1%+22.2-4.7+1.1-18.6

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)