Game · 2025-26 Final Series
5/15 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+56.4pt). The game was decided in East 2: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +22.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +9.7 | -8.0 | +0.7 | -2.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 21% | 25% | 23% | -19.1 | +32.4 | -7.3 | -6.0 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 44% | 19% | 20% | +22.7 | -11.2 | -7.2 | -4.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 34% | 16% | 18% | -2.4 | -2.4 | +6.3 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Geki Shimoishi | 31% | 33% | 19% | 17% | +11.5 | -1.5 | -9.9 | 0.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 29% | 13% | 18% | +8.2 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -7.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Geki Shimoishi | 50% | 28% | 12% | 11% | +0.1 | -0.8 | -10.2 | +10.9 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Geki Shimoishi | 52% | 26% | 7% | 15% | +15.4 | -3.3 | -12.2 | +0.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 72% | 14% | 3% | 11% | +1.5 | +4.2 | +3.6 | -9.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 73% | 15% | 4% | 8% | +3.2 | -2.3 | -7.2 | +6.3 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 83% | 9% | 0% | 8% | +6.4 | +4.9 | -2.9 | -8.3 |