Game · 2025-26 Finals
5/15 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+56.4pt). The game was decided in East 2: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +23.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Shimoishi Geki 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Shimoishi Geki Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 27% | 23% | 24% | 26% | +6.7 | -4.6 | +0.3 | -2.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 19% | 26% | 24% | -17.6 | +32.8 | -8.9 | -6.4 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 45% | 19% | 19% | +23.1 | -14.2 | -4.0 | -4.9 |
| East 3 | Draw | 34% | 32% | 17% | 17% | -3.6 | -1.3 | +4.3 | +0.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Shimoishi Geki | 31% | 31% | 20% | 19% | +11.5 | +1.5 | -8.6 | -4.4 |
| East 4 | Draw | 41% | 31% | 13% | 15% | +8.2 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -5.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,600 from Shimoishi Geki | 49% | 29% | 11% | 10% | -0.3 | -0.2 | -11.2 | +11.7 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Shimoishi Geki | 50% | 28% | 7% | 15% | +16.0 | -5.6 | -9.2 | -1.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 72% | 13% | 5% | 10% | +1.1 | +4.6 | +1.3 | -6.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,300 from Setokuma Naoki | 73% | 16% | 3% | 8% | +3.4 | -2.3 | -6.6 | +5.5 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 4,000 | 83% | 9% | 0% | 8% | +6.3 | +5.1 | -2.9 | -8.5 |