Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/6 Game 1
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+65.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 8,000, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +47.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 24,000 | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | +59.6 | -20.6 | -20.2 | -18.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 74% | 9% | 8% | 10% | +18.4 | -4.7 | -4.9 | -8.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 4,000 | 89% | 4% | 3% | 4% | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.2 | +10.2 |
| East 2 | Nagai Kosuke ron 2,900 from Hinata Aiko | 88% | 3% | 3% | 6% | -3.1 | +4.4 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 86% | 5% | 4% | 5% | -1.7 | +5.3 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 84% | 6% | 4% | 6% | -3.9 | +3.4 | +2.6 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 80% | 8% | 5% | 6% | -1.0 | +2.0 | -4.0 | +3.0 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000 | 80% | 8% | 5% | 7% | -11.2 | +33.2 | -11.4 | -10.6 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 5,800 from Daigo Hiroshi | 66% | 26% | 4% | 5% | -3.8 | +16.8 | -13.0 | 0.0 |
| East 2, 6 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,300 from Daigo Hiroshi | 56% | 38% | 1% | 5% | +2.6 | -2.0 | -6.4 | +5.8 |
| East 3 | Hinata Aiko ron 2,600 from Hagiwara Masato | 59% | 35% | 1% | 6% | +6.2 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -4.0 |
| East 4 | Draw | 66% | 30% | 0% | 4% | -3.1 | -0.4 | -1.0 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,500 from Nagai Kosuke | 63% | 30% | 1% | 6% | +2.0 | -7.3 | +0.2 | +5.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 68% | 25% | 1% | 6% | -10.1 | -8.0 | -7.6 | +25.7 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 3,000 | 56% | 24% | 0% | 20% | -5.2 | -4.6 | -1.1 | +10.8 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 2,000 | 50% | 20% | 0% | 30% | +14.6 | -2.9 | -1.0 | -10.7 |
| South 1 | Nagai Kosuke ron 3,200 from Hinata Aiko | 69% | 15% | 0% | 15% | -9.6 | +9.0 | 0.0 | +0.6 |
| South 2 | Draw | 60% | 23% | 0% | 18% | +1.1 | -7.3 | -1.0 | +7.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 1,300 from Hinata Aiko | 62% | 15% | 0% | 23% | +0.7 | +7.5 | -1.5 | -6.7 |
| South 4 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 8,000 | 68% | 16% | 0% | 16% | -27.7 | +47.3 | -1.3 | -18.3 |