Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/6 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+65.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +47.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 24,000 | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | +57.0 | -17.4 | -19.0 | -20.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 74% | 8% | 10% | 9% | +19.1 | -6.1 | -6.9 | -6.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 89% | 4% | 4% | 3% | -3.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | +9.5 |
| East 2 | Kosuke Nagai ron 2,900 from Aiko Hinata | 88% | 4% | 3% | 5% | -3.8 | +4.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 86% | 4% | 3% | 6% | -2.2 | +4.4 | -1.2 | -1.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 84% | 5% | 4% | 6% | -1.1 | +3.2 | +0.6 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 84% | 6% | 5% | 6% | -4.3 | +4.7 | -3.1 | +2.8 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 78% | 9% | 5% | 8% | -9.1 | +31.9 | -12.3 | -10.5 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 5,800 from Hiroshi Daigo | 67% | 25% | 3% | 6% | -6.1 | +17.2 | -11.9 | +0.8 |
| East 2, 6 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,300 from Hiroshi Daigo | 54% | 39% | 2% | 5% | +2.3 | -2.2 | -6.0 | +5.9 |
| East 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 57% | 35% | 1% | 6% | +6.7 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -5.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 65% | 31% | 1% | 3% | -2.3 | +0.3 | -2.1 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,500 from Kosuke Nagai | 63% | 32% | 0% | 5% | +2.9 | -8.6 | -0.9 | +6.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 69% | 25% | 0% | 6% | -10.5 | -9.3 | -6.6 | +26.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 3,000 | 58% | 22% | 0% | 20% | -4.4 | -3.7 | -1.5 | +9.6 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,000 | 52% | 20% | 0% | 28% | +12.7 | -2.8 | -0.4 | -9.5 |
| South 1 | Kosuke Nagai ron 3,200 from Aiko Hinata | 69% | 15% | 0% | 16% | -9.7 | +9.6 | +0.2 | 0.0 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 24% | 0% | 18% | +0.9 | -7.6 | -1.7 | +8.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 1,300 from Aiko Hinata | 61% | 15% | 0% | 24% | +1.2 | +7.9 | -0.7 | -8.4 |
| South 4 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 67% | 16% | 0% | 16% | -27.4 | +47.0 | -1.3 | -18.3 |