Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/8 Game 1
Kana Nakada finished 1st (+62.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Kana Nakada ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Kana Nakada's expected points by +26.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kana Nakada ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 27% | 23% | 25% | 25% | +26.1 | -26.7 | -1.0 | +1.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 5,200 | 46% | 10% | 22% | 23% | -6.7 | -4.3 | +14.1 | -3.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 8% | 31% | 21% | -4.2 | +3.2 | -2.1 | +3.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Megumu Aikawa ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 36% | 10% | 31% | 24% | +1.0 | -11.6 | -0.8 | +11.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 5% | 29% | 30% | -4.2 | -3.6 | +1.7 | +6.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kana Nakada ron 3,900 from Megumu Aikawa | 31% | 3% | 29% | 36% | +15.3 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -13.2 |
| East 4 | Kana Nakada tsumo 8,000 | 46% | 3% | 27% | 24% | +22.9 | -1.9 | -7.7 | -13.3 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,000 from Kana Nakada | 74% | 2% | 14% | 10% | -0.1 | -2.3 | +2.2 | +0.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 76% | 2% | 14% | 9% | -2.7 | +3.1 | -4.1 | +3.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 1,100 | 74% | 2% | 12% | 12% | +2.4 | -6.4 | -0.2 | +4.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 78% | 0% | 11% | 11% | -3.5 | -1.6 | +7.0 | -1.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 73% | 0% | 15% | 11% | -2.5 | -0.2 | +5.3 | -2.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Megumu Aikawa | 68% | 0% | 20% | 12% | -3.6 | -0.5 | +16.2 | -12.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kana Nakada ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 60% | 0% | 34% | 5% | +11.1 | -3.5 | -7.6 | 0.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 79% | 0% | 17% | 4% | +8.8 | +2.0 | -5.8 | -5.0 |