Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/12 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+61.5pt). The game was decided in South 3: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +26.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -5.8 | +4.4 | -1.7 | +3.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 27% | 23% | 29% | +3.1 | +7.1 | -3.9 | -6.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 5,800 from Kayamori Sayaka | 22% | 33% | 21% | 24% | -18.9 | +20.7 | -2.1 | +0.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 10% | 50% | 18% | 22% | -1.7 | +5.5 | -0.6 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 2,000 | 9% | 55% | 17% | 19% | -2.0 | -3.7 | -4.0 | +9.7 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 10% | 50% | 15% | 25% | -3.6 | +0.4 | -8.4 | +11.5 |
| East 4 | Draw | 8% | 51% | 9% | 32% | -2.8 | -1.6 | +5.7 | -1.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 7% | 50% | 12% | 31% | -21.9 | +26.1 | 0.0 | -4.1 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 79% | 5% | 15% | -2.5 | -3.6 | +9.5 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 80% | 8% | 12% | -4.1 | -6.4 | -15.7 | +26.3 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 0% | 67% | 0% | 33% | +0.3 | -23.6 | -0.4 | +23.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 16% | 0% | 84% | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.3 | +3.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 13% | 0% | 87% | +4.4 | -4.9 | +0.4 | +0.2 |