Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/12 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+61.5pt). The game was decided in South 3: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +27.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 27% | 25% | 23% | -4.5 | +5.4 | -5.7 | +4.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 29% | 22% | 27% | +2.4 | +2.9 | -3.4 | -2.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,800 from Sayaka Kayamori | 23% | 31% | 20% | 27% | -16.3 | +20.5 | 0.0 | -4.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 48% | 18% | 21% | -4.6 | +8.4 | -2.4 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,000 | 10% | 56% | 15% | 20% | -0.5 | -4.2 | -2.9 | +7.7 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 10% | 52% | 14% | 24% | -4.8 | -0.9 | -8.7 | +14.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 50% | 9% | 33% | -1.2 | -1.5 | +5.8 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 8% | 50% | 12% | 30% | -23.5 | +25.4 | +0.4 | -2.3 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 79% | 5% | 16% | -2.9 | -2.0 | +10.2 | -5.2 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 80% | 8% | 12% | -3.3 | -7.5 | -16.4 | +27.2 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 0% | 67% | 0% | 33% | -0.3 | -22.6 | +0.4 | +22.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 18% | 0% | 82% | -0.4 | -3.7 | -1.0 | +5.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 11% | 0% | 89% | +4.1 | -3.8 | +0.4 | -0.7 |