Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

1/16 Game 1

Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+66.2pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Okada Sayaka tsumo 18,000, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +47.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 2South 1End● Okada Sayaka● Matsumoto Yoshihiro● Miura Tomohiro● Takeuchi Genta0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3End● Okada● Matsumoto● Miura● Takeuchi
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultOkada Sayaka
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Miura Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Takeuchi Genta
1st-place chance
Okada Sayaka
Expected pt change
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Miura Tomohiro
Expected pt change
Takeuchi Genta
Expected pt change
East 1Draw24%26%24%25%+6.4-1.1-2.9-2.4
East 1, 1 honbaOkada Sayaka tsumo 18,00029%24%24%24%+47.6-15.9-17.7-14.0
East 1, 2 honbaTakeuchi Genta tsumo 8,00069%12%9%10%-11.0-8.2-4.4+23.5
East 2Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Miura Tomohiro59%9%9%23%-1.2+29.5-25.3-3.0
East 2, 1 honbaOkada Sayaka ron 1,300 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro55%20%4%21%+7.6-8.8+0.5+0.6
East 3Miura Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka65%13%3%19%-26.1+2.9+19.9+3.4
East 3, 1 honbaOkada Sayaka ron 3,200 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro41%21%9%29%+12.3-9.3-2.1-0.9
East 4Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,00054%15%6%25%-6.8+25.7-5.2-13.7
South 1Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,600 from Miura Tomohiro46%31%6%17%-2.7+10.4-8.5+0.7
South 2Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,00042%40%3%15%+27.5-17.5-4.3-5.6
South 3Okada Sayaka ron 2,000 from Takeuchi Genta79%12%2%7%+7.1+0.9-4.3-3.7
South 4Okada Sayaka ron 1,000 from Takeuchi Genta91%4%0%5%+6.1+1.4-1.2-6.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)