Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/16 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+66.2pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +47.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Miura 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Tomohiro Miura Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +4.8 | -2.0 | +0.3 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000 | 30% | 23% | 24% | 24% | +47.6 | -14.9 | -18.9 | -13.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 8,000 | 68% | 10% | 10% | 12% | -9.8 | -8.5 | -4.0 | +22.4 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Tomohiro Miura | 59% | 9% | 8% | 24% | -1.6 | +29.4 | -25.5 | -2.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,300 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 55% | 19% | 3% | 22% | +8.2 | -7.7 | -0.5 | +0.1 |
| East 3 | Tomohiro Miura ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 66% | 13% | 3% | 18% | -25.0 | +0.5 | +23.1 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 44% | 19% | 10% | 27% | +9.5 | -6.0 | -3.8 | +0.3 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 53% | 15% | 7% | 25% | -6.2 | +24.8 | -6.9 | -11.6 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Tomohiro Miura | 45% | 32% | 5% | 18% | -1.9 | +10.4 | -6.8 | -1.7 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 42% | 40% | 4% | 14% | +27.2 | -17.5 | -4.6 | -5.0 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Genta Takeuchi | 80% | 11% | 2% | 7% | +7.3 | +1.3 | -4.5 | -4.1 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Genta Takeuchi | 91% | 5% | 0% | 4% | +5.9 | +1.1 | -1.1 | -5.9 |